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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 060059
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST WED MAR 05 2014
VALID 060100Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...PACIFIC NW...
A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS WA/ORE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE VORT LOBE MOVES INTO NRN
CA. MEANWHILE...THE PARENT MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY 12Z THU. TRENDS IN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSES COMBINED WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTED THE COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE PACIFIC TROUGH WAS LOCATED
WITHIN 25-35 MILES OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN ORE COASTS...RESPECTIVELY.
A LITTLE FARTHER S OFF THE SWRN ORE COAST...THE WIND AT BUOY 46015
AT 00Z WAS BEGINNING TO VEER TO A SSWLY TRAJECTORY INDICATING THE
FRONT MAY BE PASSING THIS LOCATION. THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE INVOF THE SWRN WA
COAST...ORE COAST AND FAR NWRN CA...AND ALSO WITH ANY LOW-TOPPED
CELLULAR ACTIVITY IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE
EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT AND COOLING 500 MB TEMPERATURES WITH
HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA ATTENDANT TO THE LEAD IMPULSE AND APPROACH OF
THE PARENT TROUGH MAY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION AND
EMBEDDED TSTMS. AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZATION WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST...FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A TORNADO...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATER /MUCAPE 100-250 J PER KG/ THAN LOCATIONS FARTHER
INLAND.
...CENTRAL AND NERN GULF COAST/WEST CENTRAL FL COAST...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
ADVANCING NWD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL-NERN GULF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS COMBINED WITH DPVA ATTENDANT TO A LEAD WRN-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IMPULSE AND A SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS
REGION. ONGOING STORMS OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD REACH THE
WEST CENTRAL FL COAST...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A GENERAL TSTM AREA
HERE AS WELL.
..PETERS.. 03/06/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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