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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 072000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CST FRI MAR 07 2014 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...20Z UPDATE... WHILE A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NM THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER EVALUATION OF SHORT-TERM OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN VERY MARGINAL. ..GUYER.. 03/07/2014 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CST FRI MAR 07 2014/ ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S. TODAY. SRN STREAM CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL EXIT THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE FARTHER WEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN KS/OK WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS TONIGHT. WEST OF THIS FEATURE A POSITIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE SWD. BY 12Z SATURDAY THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO NRN OK AND THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN TX. ...CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES THROUGH SRN PLAINS... PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO DIABATIC WARMING AND ADVECT EWD THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MID-UPPER ASCENT PROMOTED BY THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MODEST 300-500 MUCAPE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM ERN AZ THROUGH SRN CO AND NRN NM WITH STORMS LIKELY TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS NRN NM. GIVEN INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG GUST WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING. FARTHER EAST...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH NRN TX AND OK TONIGHT ABOVE THE SWD ADVANCING FRONT...RESULTING IN 300-500 J/KG MUCAPE ROOTED AROUND 700-750 MB. ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN POST FRONTAL ZONE...AUGMENTED BY A VORT MAX EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |
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