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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 141548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE...WEAK SPLIT FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. NRN STREAM SYSTEM NOW ENTERING WA SHOULD CONTINUE ESE INTO WY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WHILE SRN BRANCH TROUGH NOW OVER AZ ASSUMES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT AS IT MOVES E INTO ERN NM/FAR W TX. DOWNSTREAM FROM BOTH SYSTEMS...LEE TROUGHING/WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED AT THE SFC OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLNS. MODEST RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN PLNS BETWEEN NOW AND SAT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. SUFFICIENT ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR TO SUPPORT SCTD ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE RED RVR VLY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY E OF AZ UPR IMPULSE. ...AZ/NM TODAY... ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL/NRN AZ/NM AS SFC HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES REGION ALREADY SUBJECT TO MID-LVL MOISTENING/ASCENT AHEAD OF AZ UPR TROUGH. SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR 100-300 J/KG MLCAPE. THE TSTM THREAT MAY LINGER INTO MID-EVE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W-E WITH EWD MOVEMENT OF LARGE-SCALE LIFT. ...SRN PLNS AFTER 09Z... POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS AS MODEST LWR TROPOSPHERIC SSW FLOW BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY SAT ALLOWS FOR APPRECIABLE MOISTENING OF THE 925-850 MB LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR TROUGH. THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS GREATEST FROM PARTS OF NW TX AND THE RED RVR VLY E/NE INTO PARTS OF SRN OK...ALTHOUGH ISOLD THUNDER ALSO COULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER THE REGION LIKELY WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 12Z SAT. BUT SUFFICIENT JUXTAPOSITIONING OF LIFT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES MAY OCCUR TO PROMOTE HAIL IN A FEW CELLS. WHILE MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG MAY DEVELOP...MODEST CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE. ..CORFIDI/CARBIN.. 03/14/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |
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