| 
)| Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| |||||||||
SPC AC 151230 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS N FL AND SE GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS ERN NC AND SE VA... ...SUMMARY... A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO...WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AS WELL AS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. ...N FL TO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY... ANOTHER COMPLEX SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE MS AND OH VALLEYS TO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THIS MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRECEDED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE EWD TO CENTRAL FL AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z. AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE AND S GA...AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE CENTRAL NC CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW-MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX THAT IS PROGRESSING NEWD OVER NC ...BASED ON THE VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND BACKING/STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL FLOW NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING AT GSP/CAE...AND MORE RECENTLY AT RAX/FCX. THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY FROM ERN NC INTO SE VA THIS MORNING...WHERE A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER S...A SMALL BUT PERSISTENT MCS AND DIFFUSE MESOLOW WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD/NEWD FROM S CENTRAL GA TO THE SE GA AND SC COASTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE EWD PROGRESS OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAS BEEN INHIBITED EARLY THIS MORNING BY A RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS FROM CENTRAL FL INTO SE GA...THOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL ERODE THIS SHALLOW STABLE LAYER AND ALLOW THE STORMS TO STRENGTHEN SOME LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS N FL/SE GA. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PRECEDING THE DIFFUSE MESOLOW...WHILE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN RISK WITH THE TRAILING BAND OF STORMS AS THE LOW LEVELS WARM THROUGH LATE MORNING. THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO LEAD SYSTEMS COMPLICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. LINGERING CLOUDS/RAIN WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION...SUCH THAT ONLY LOW WIND DAMAGE PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED FROM E CENTRAL GA TO CENTRAL NC/VA IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION. ..THOMPSON/DEAN.. 04/15/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |