Apr 16, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Apr 16 19:43:35 UTC 2014 (20140416 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140416 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140416 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140416 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140416 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140416 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 161940

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

   VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY
   INTO TONIGHT.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
   SUPPORT A FEW SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH DIURNALLY
   ENHANCED/TERRAIN-DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND
   IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. COVERAGE OF SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD
   REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM DELINEATION.
   ELSEWHERE -- ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO POSSIBLE
   ACROSS PARTS OF S FL ADDRESSED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND
   POSSIBLY A LIGHTNING STRIKE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC CYCLONE -- THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
   CONUS-WIDE.

   ..COHEN.. 04/16/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
   U.S. TODAY...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE MOST OF THE
   COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AT THE SURFACE...A
   STRONG/COLD HIGH WILL PERSIST E OF THE MS VALLEY...WHILE FARTHER W A
   WEAK LOW/COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY. 
   MEANWHILE...A BROAD REGION OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER MUCH OF
   THE WRN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.

   WITH A PRIOR COLD FRONT -- NOW CROSSING THE WRN ATLANTIC BUT
   LINGERING INVOF S FL -- HAVING USHERED IN COLD/STABLE AIR ACROSS THE
   ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...INLAND THUNDERSTORM RISK REMAINS LARGELY
   NON-EXISTENT.  SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO COULD
   AFFECT PARTS OF THE S FL VICINITY...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE
   APPRECIABLE THUNDER RISK WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z