Apr 25, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 25 16:12:34 UTC 2014 (20140425 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140425 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140425 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140425 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140425 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140425 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 57,549 9,355,545 Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Norfolk, VA...Durham, NC...
   SPC AC 251608

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1108 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

   VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
   CENTRAL AND ERN NC/VA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS
   OF VIRGINA AND NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SEVERAL
   TORNADOES...CORRIDORS OF WIND DAMAGE...AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.

   ...CENTRAL AND ERN NC/VA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT/TROUGH
   WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC
   COAST BY EARLY TONIGHT.  IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE
   FRONT/TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING RAPIDLY ACROSS
   CENTRAL/ERN NC AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD TOWARD THE VA BORDER
   THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS ALSO ONGOING ACROSS THE
   CAROLINAS TO THE E OF AN ERODING STRATUS DECK OVER THE NC
   PIEDMONT...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE NEAR
   1500 J PER KG/ THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR.

   TWO MODES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION ARE EXPECTED TODAY - A FEW
   DISCRETE CELLS IN THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR BY EARLY-MID
   AFTERNOON...AND A BAND OF STORMS ALONG THE CONSOLIDATING COLD
   FRONT/LEE TROUGH BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON INVOF CENTRAL NC.  IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION...VERTICAL SHEAR
   WILL ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  THE SEASONABLY RICH
   MOISTURE AND MODERATE BUOYANCY...ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300
   M2/S2...WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES...INCLUDING AN
   ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

   ...UPPER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
   ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...IF POCKETS OF
   HEATING CAN DEVELOP IN SMALL CLOUD BREAKS NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVE...THERE COULD BE
   SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL FOR A
   FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

   ...ELSEWHERE...
   A STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVER CA LATER TODAY...AND
   REACH THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY.  COLD MIDLEVEL
   TEMPERATURES AND MOIST PROFILES WILL SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY AND AN
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM RISK FROM THE CENTRAL CA COAST INTO THE NRN
   GREAT BASIN.  OTHERWISE...MOISTENING ABOVE THE SURFACE IN A WAA
   REGIME COULD SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY
   SATURDAY MORNING INVOF ERN KS/WRN MO.

   ..THOMPSON/DEAN.. 04/25/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z