Apr 27, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |||||||||||||
Updated: Sun Apr 27 16:33:41 UTC 2014 ( | ) | |||||||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table | |||||||||||||
Public Severe Weather Outlook | |||||||||||||
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The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the ozarks into lower mississippi valley this afternoon and tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event. View What is a Watch? clip. |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||||||
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||||||
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||||||
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||||||
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 271629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR AR AND ADJACENT AREAS OF ERN OK...NE TX...AND SRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX AND NRN LA NWD TO THE MIDDLE MO AND MS RIVER VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ARKANSAS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE GREATEST TORNADO RISK WILL BE CENTERED ON ARKANSAS...WHERE A FEW STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A BAND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT CENTERED ON AR...WHERE A FEW STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW AS THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM OCCLUDES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED PEAK INTENSITY...AND IT WILL VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING EWD NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ERN KS/OK AND N TX. THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS WILL BE WITH THE MORNING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION FROM KS/OK INTO MO/IA...AND WITH ADDITIONAL WARM SECTOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT FROM SE OK/NE TX INTO AR. ...ARKLATEX NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF AR/SRN MO... THE RICHEST MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR IS SPREADING INTO SRN AR AND NE TX BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PER 12Z SOUNDINGS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED ACROSS NRN LA AND SRN AR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHERE UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 F WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. THE N/NE EDGE OF THE STRONGER BUOYANCY /SW OF THE ONGOING WAA STORMS OVER E AND NE AR THIS MORNING/ WILL COINCIDE WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND A 40-50 KT LLJ. IT APPEARS THAT THE EARLY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IN NE TX/ERN OK WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO WARM SECTOR SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON...AS DESTABILIZATION PROCEEDS AND AS VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IMPROVE WITH PASSAGE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS MORNING. A FEW STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SUPERCELLS...GIVEN EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2...MODERATE BUOYANCY...AND MOIST LOW LEVELS. A DISCRETE OR CLUSTER SUPERCELL MODE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS AR...PROLONGING THE TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK. ...CENTRAL NEB TO SRN IA/ERN KS/MO THROUGH THIS EVENING... THE FORECAST SITUATION HAS BEEN COMPLICATED SUBSTANTIALLY BY AN EXPANSIVE BAND OF MORNING CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT/DRYLINE FROM ERN OK NWD ACROSS ERN KS TO SE NEB. THIS CONVECTION HAS PROPAGATED WELL E OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH ASCENT ABOVE THE SURFACE PRECEDING THE INITIAL SPEED MAX ROTATING AROUND THE DEVELOPING MIDLEVEL LOW NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT FROM ERN KS INTO MO/IA WILL BE WITH A CONTINUATION OF THIS ONGOING CONVECTION. SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THIS CONVECTION...THOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL HINDER SURFACE HEATING SOME. ALSO...THE CONVECTIVE MODE IS ALREADY MESSY/COMPLEX AND MAY REMAIN SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE PRONOUNCED BACKING OF MID-UPPER FLOW NOTED IN KS/MO VWP/S. A MIX OF EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 58-60 F RANGE NEAR AND BEHIND THIS INITIAL CONVECTION...SUCH THAT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WITHIN THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AS SOME CLEARING OCCURS FROM THE S. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS EXPECTED ARC OF CONVECTION...WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ..THOMPSON/DEAN.. 04/27/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |