Apr 28, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Apr 28 02:35:38 UTC 2014 (20140428 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140428 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the ozarks and surrounding areas overnight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

Categorical Graphic
20140428 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140428 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140428 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140428 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 54,463 3,201,253 Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Ft. Smith, AR...Texarkana, TX...Camden, AR...
SLIGHT 328,529 24,060,216 Memphis, TN...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...St. Louis, MO...Lincoln, NE...
   SPC AC 280232

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0932 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   VALID 280230Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF AR AND VICINITY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ARCING FROM ERN NEB/IA SWD TO
   NERN TX/NRN LA/MS...

   AMENDED TO REMOVE THE MODERATE RISK FROM MOST OF MISSOURI...AND THE
   HIGH RISK FROM ARKANSAS

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
   THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
   MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARKS REGION INTO PARTS OR
   EASTERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA.  THE AREA WHERE THE GREATEST
   RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
   STRONG TORNADOES -- WILL REMAIN CENTERED ON THE ARKANSAS VICINITY.

   ...MO/AR AND VICINITY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI HAS DIMINISHED OVER
   THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AS CONVECTION HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF THE
   NARROW AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY NEAR THE KS/MO BORDER. 
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
   ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND NWD INTO IA AND POSSIBLY ERN NEB....BUT
   GREATEST SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH
   INCLUDING SWRN MO AND INTO AR AND VICINITY.  

   WHILE ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST
   AR INTO SERN MO AND VICINITY...CONVECTION IS REDEVELOPING ACROSS ERN
   OK.  IN ADDITION..HIGH-RES MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FROM ERN OK/AR SWD INTO PARTS OF E TX AND LA
   OVERNIGHT.  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ACROSS THIS
   REGION...ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE
   RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS.

   ...IA/IL/WRN KY/WRN TN/MS...
   WIDESPREAD -- BUT PRIMARILY ELEVATED -- STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE IN AN ARC ALONG AND E OF THE MS VALLEY TONIGHT...AS A
   LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES/VEERS WITH TIME.  ALONG WITH RISK FOR A FEW
   STRONGER WIND GUSTS...HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS
   CONVECTION SHIFTS ACROSS THIS AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

   ..GOSS.. 04/28/2014

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