May 4, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 4 04:59:37 UTC 2014 (20140504 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140504 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140504 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140504 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140504 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140504 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 040456

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1156 PM CDT SAT MAY 03 2014

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE
   WESTERN VIRGINIAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...WEAK STORMS MAY
   RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES EWD ACROSS
   NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND WARM
   WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS. TO THE W...ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE
   SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
   MEXICO...WITH A BROAD LOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY FROM KS INTO ERN
   WY. STRONG MIXING DUE TO HEATING DURING THE DAY SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY
   LOW AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE RETURN NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY.

   ...ERN KY INTO WRN VA AND WV...
   WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVELS WILL EXIST DURING THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF
   THE PASSING TROUGH TO THE N. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR...BUT
   MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR INSTABILITY. WHILE THERE IS MODEL
   CONSISTENCY DEPICTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN KY INTO THE
   WRN VIRGINIAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
   IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. IF UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS
   CAN BE ATTAINED IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY...THEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
   MAY BE PRESENT FOR A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL STORM...BUT THE
   PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW.

   ...SRN MT...
   STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO STEEP DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATE
   PROFILES BY AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR
   INSTABILITY. STILL...WEAK CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN
   MT...WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. SMALL SUB-SEVERE HAIL
   WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SMALL LONG-LIVED CELLS THAT CAN
   MAINTAIN A CORE DUE TO THE FAVORABLY LONG HODOGRAPHS.

   ..JEWELL/SMITH.. 05/04/2014

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