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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 051556
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2014
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...OVER A SMALL PART OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND NORTH CAROLINA.
ANOTHER SMALL THREAT AREA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BLACK HILLS REGION
AND SURROUNDING HIGH PLAINS.
...WV/VA/NC...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
WESTERN VA/NC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. WEAK LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR...WITH DAYTIME HEATING SLOWLY DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS
AND LEADING TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG. MODEL
SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION THAT OCCURS LATER TODAY
IN THE REGION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS IF ANY PERSISTENT STORMS FORM. THIS RISK SHOULD
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER DARK.
...BLACK HILLS REGION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
ONLY A WEAK CAP. HIGH-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS ACTIVITY SPREADS ACROSS THE
BLACK HILLS AND SURROUNDING HIGH PLAINS.
..HART/ROGERS.. 05/05/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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