May 15, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 15 05:44:39 UTC 2014 (20140515 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140515 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140515 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140515 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140515 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140515 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 60,702 10,828,389 Charlotte, NC...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...
   SPC AC 150541

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1241 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014

   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF VA AND THE
   CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES
   WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PARTS OF VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS.

   ...SUMMARY...
   A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WITH
   A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
   INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  DEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH HAVE RESULTED IN A PLUME OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR FROM FL TO
   NY...WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  DESPITE
   SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE
   STORMS...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HINDER
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS.  THEREFORE
   HAVE MAINTAINED A LARGE AREA OF ONLY MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER
   PROBABILITIES.

   ...VA/CAROLINAS...
   ONE AREA THAT APPEARS TO HAVE A MORE FOCUSED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
   IS OVER VA AND THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
   CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF
   GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  AS THIS OCCURS...STRENGTHENING
   SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ENLARGE THE HODOGRAPHS AND ENHANCE
   WARM ADVECTION/LIFT.  INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR DUE TO
   EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.  HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
   MID/UPPER 60S...EVEN MODEST HEATING COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.  EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN RISK.

   DURING THE EVENING...IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION WILL
   ORGANIZE UPSCALE WITH A QLCS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
   VA/NC.  AGAIN...INSTABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING BOUNDARY LAYER
   LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS...AND IS
   THE REASON FOR NOT EXTENDING THE SLIGHT RISK FARTHER EAST. THIS AREA
   WILL NEED FURTHER EVALUATION IN LATER UPDATES.

   ...ARKLATEX...
   A POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE OVER MUCH OF THE
   CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES AOB -20C
   ACROSS MUCH OF OK/AR AND NORTHEAST TX.  MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL BEGIN TO
   AFFECT THE ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STEEP LOW/MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COMPENSATE FOR MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 400-800
   J/KG.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   IN EASTERN OK AND NORTHEAST TX...TRACKING INTO PARTS OF AR/LA DURING
   THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.  THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   HAIL.

   ..HART/GUYER.. 05/15/2014

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