May 22, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Thu May 22 19:58:41 UTC 2014 ( | ) | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 221955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TN/KY AND VICINITY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WESTWARD TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON -- WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. STORMS WILL LIKEWISE CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO COLORADO...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. ...DISCUSSION... GENERAL FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS EITHER DEVELOPING OR ONGOING ACROSS THE THREE MAIN RISK AREAS IN EFFECT -- I.E. THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION...THE TN VALLEY AREA...AND THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY. AS A RESULT...FEW CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE EXISTING OUTLOOK AREAS. ..GOSS.. 05/22/2014 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2014/ ...NY TO VA... CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN NY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS CORRIDOR IS EXPECTED TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. REFER TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 653 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ...TN VALLEY... FULL SUNSHINE IS OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF KY/TN TODAY...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG. WHILE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...WEAK FORCING AND SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING SUGGEST THAT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. THOSE STORMS THAT FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HAVE BACKED OFF ON HIGHER PROBABILITIES OVER THIS AREA DUE TO CONCERNS REGARDING COVERAGE. ...WY/CO... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY AGAIN TODAY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF SOUTHEAST WY INTO CO. THE DCVZ WILL BE ACTIVE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...FOCUSING A RISK OF SUPERCELL STORMS NEAR THE DENVER AREA. STORM-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST CO MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY...POSING A RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ...ERN NM/WEST TX... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE OVER EASTERN NM AND WEST TX. MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A RISK. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |