May 22, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 22 19:58:41 UTC 2014 (20140522 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140522 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140522 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140522 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140522 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140522 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 237,631 41,666,180 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Denver, CO...Baltimore, MD...Nashville, TN...
   SPC AC 221955

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0255 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014

   VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   NORTHEAST U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TN/KY AND
   VICINITY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH
   PLAINS REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WESTWARD TO THE MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
   TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON -- WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
   HAIL EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. STRONG TO SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL ALSO
   CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC.

   STORMS WILL LIKEWISE CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
   THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO COLORADO...AND
   ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SOME OF
   THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   GENERAL FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
   STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS EITHER DEVELOPING OR ONGOING ACROSS THE
   THREE MAIN RISK AREAS IN EFFECT -- I.E. THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
   REGION...THE TN VALLEY AREA...AND THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS
   VICINITY.  AS A RESULT...FEW CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE EXISTING
   OUTLOOK AREAS.

   ..GOSS.. 05/22/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2014/

   ...NY TO VA...
   CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
   AND NORTHEAST STATES TODAY.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
   RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN NY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  THIS
   CORRIDOR IS EXPECTED TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 
   SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
   CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  REFER TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
   653 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

   ...TN VALLEY...
   FULL SUNSHINE IS OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF KY/TN TODAY...WHERE
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500
   J/KG.  WHILE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   IS EXPECTED...WEAK FORCING AND SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING SUGGEST THAT
   COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.  THOSE STORMS THAT FORM WILL POSE A RISK
   OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  HAVE BACKED OFF ON HIGHER
   PROBABILITIES OVER THIS AREA DUE TO CONCERNS REGARDING COVERAGE.

   ...WY/CO...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY AGAIN TODAY ALONG
   THE FRONT RANGE OF SOUTHEAST WY INTO CO.  THE DCVZ WILL BE ACTIVE
   AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...FOCUSING A RISK OF SUPERCELL STORMS NEAR THE
   DENVER AREA.  STORM-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST
   CO MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY...POSING A RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY
   WINDS AND HAIL.

   ...ERN NM/WEST TX...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE
   DRYLINE OVER EASTERN NM AND WEST TX.  MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A RISK.

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