SPC AC 241629

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

   VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
   PLNS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN FOCUS OVER THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN NEW
   MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND A TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
   RAIN. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE
   ROCKIES INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MAY OCCUR OVER THE OZARKS...THE LOWER TENNESSEE
   VALLEY...AND THE NORTHEAST.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH VERY SLOWLY
   PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE CONUS. CNTRL AZ UPR LOW
   SHOULD DRIFT/REFORM E/NE TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD...LARGELY IN RESPONSE TO THE MOTION OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
   ROTATING ABOUT ITS CENTER.

   FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK AT THE SFC. DIURNALLY-ENHANCED LOW THAT
   SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STNRY W OF THE TX BIG BEND WILL MAINTAIN
   MODERATE...MOIST SSE FLOW ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLNS. THIS
   INFLOW...AND ITS INTERACTION WITH EXISTING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES...TERRAIN...AND AXES OF LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE...WILL FOSTER
   SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NM AND W TX
   THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

   ...SRN HIGH PLNS TODAY/TNGT... 
   VORT LOBE NOW IN BASE OF AZ UPR LOW...PER SATELLITE DATA...SHOULD
   MOVE E ACROSS NRN CHIHUAHUA TODAY AND NE ACROSS FAR W TX/ERN NM
   TNGT/EARLY SUN. THIS FEATURE WILL SOMEWHAT ENHANCE MID/UPR-LVL SHEAR
   AND ASCENT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLNS LATER TODAY INTO TNGT. COUPLED
   WITH SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED INFLOW OF MOISTURE-RICH AIR /PW
   1.25-1.50 INCHES/...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNALLY
   ENHANCED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF ERN NM INTO WRN AND SW TX. 


   GIVEN LARGE AREA OF ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER SRN PARTS OF
   THE TX PANHANDLE AND THE TX SOUTH PLNS...EXPECT THAT ASSOCIATED
   MESOHIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. THIS SHOULD
   DRIVE WSW-ENE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FARTHER S INTO THE TRANS PECOS/
   PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD...HOWEVER...BECOME QSTNRY
   LATER TODAY /ESPECIALLY THE WRN PART/. ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   OF FAR W TX AND SE NM...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A MAIN FOCUS
   FOR AFTN/EVE STORM DEVELOPMENT. 

   WITH 500 MB SSWLY FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KTS WITH THE APPROACH
   OF UPR VORT LOBE...AND MODEST SSE FLOW PERSISTING AHEAD OF OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY AT THE SFC...SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
   STORMS/SUPERCELLS. AND...GIVEN MLCAPE OF 1500 TO PERHAPS 2000 J/KG
   IN HEATED AREAS...THE STORMS COULD YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
   DMGG WIND. SOME RISK ALSO WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES GIVEN MOISTURE
   AVAILABILITY AND LIKELIHOOD FOR CORRIDORS LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW-LVL
   SHEAR ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEGMENTS...AND/OR ALONG CONFLUENCE AXES
   S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 

   ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH LATE
   TNGT AND EARLY SUN...ESPECIALLY IN SW TX...WHERE INCREASING UPR
   DIVERGENCE AND PERSISTENT MOIST INFLOW SUGGEST UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT
   INTO A LARGE...SLOWLY MOVING MCS.  

   ...NRN HIGH PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
   WEAK UPR DIVERGENCE AND ASCENT ALONG/AHEAD OF WEAK...EWD-MOVING COLD
   FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD AFTN/EVE STORMS IN ZONE OF STEEP LOW-MID
   LVL LAPSE RATES OVER ERN MT. THE CONVECTION COULD YIELD STG/ISOLD
   SVR GUSTS. MODEST DEEP SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SVR THREAT.

   ..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 05/24/2014

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