May 25, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 25 01:03:37 UTC 2014 (20140525 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140525 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140525 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140525 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140525 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140525 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 88,237 1,296,543 Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...San Angelo, TX...Roswell, NM...
   SPC AC 250100

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

   VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW
   MEXICO...AND WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

   ...EASTERN NM AND WEST/SOUTHWEST TX...
   A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE
   ONGOING AT MID-EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN/STOCKTON
   PLATEAU/EDWARDS PLATEAU OF SOUTHWEST TX. BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM DETAILS...SEE
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 686.

   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IS OTHERWISE STEADILY PROGRESSING
   SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM THIS
   EVENING. AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND AN
   EJECTING IMPULSE/JET STREAK ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
   SOUTHERN ROCKIES UPPER LOW MAY INSPIRE ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NM INTO WEST/SOUTHWEST TX. BOUTS
   OF SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AS A RELATIVELY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS /SHALLOW OUTFLOW OUTSIDE/ ACROSS THE
   REGION AS SAMPLED PER THE 00Z MIDLAND OBSERVED SOUNDING.

   ..GUYER.. 05/25/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z