May 25, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Sun May 25 01:03:37 UTC 2014 ( | ) | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 250100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ...EASTERN NM AND WEST/SOUTHWEST TX... A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING AT MID-EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN/STOCKTON PLATEAU/EDWARDS PLATEAU OF SOUTHWEST TX. BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM DETAILS...SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 686. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IS OTHERWISE STEADILY PROGRESSING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM THIS EVENING. AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND AN EJECTING IMPULSE/JET STREAK ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES UPPER LOW MAY INSPIRE ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NM INTO WEST/SOUTHWEST TX. BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AS A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS /SHALLOW OUTFLOW OUTSIDE/ ACROSS THE REGION AS SAMPLED PER THE 00Z MIDLAND OBSERVED SOUNDING. ..GUYER.. 05/25/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |