Jun 6, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 6 06:00:37 UTC 2014 (20140606 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140606 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140606 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140606 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140606 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140606 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 508,555 29,394,920 Memphis, TN...Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Atlanta, GA...Colorado Springs, CO...
   SPC AC 060557

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO
   THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THE CENTRAL TO
   THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS ALONG WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES IS FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LOW-AMPLITUDE/QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
   CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD OVER
   S-CNTRL CANADA AND A WEAKER IMPULSE OFF THE CA COAST SHIFTS INLAND.
   A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER S-CNTRL TX. A BELT
   OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO
   THE MID-SOUTH...WITH A NWLY COMPONENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE
   SURFACE...A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL
   LIE FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
   SLOWLY SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

   ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
   CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF SEVERE
   CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD OWING TO ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS OVER ERN CO...THE OZARK PLATEAU...AND THE TX PANHANDLE.
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAVE POORLY
   HANDLED THE EVOLUTION OF THESE AREAS THUS FAR. SPREAD AMONG GUIDANCE
   IS HIGH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AMIDST PREDOMINATELY
   WEAK FORCING OVER MODERATE TO STRONG POTENTIAL BUOYANCY AND ROBUST
   MLCIN. HOW THIS CONVECTION ULTIMATELY AFFECTS THE BREADTH/AMPLITUDE
   OF THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR IS UNCERTAIN. BUT WITH LOW PROBABILITY OF
   LARGE-SCALE MCS/MCC DEVELOPMENT...AIR MASS SHOULD LARGELY BE ABLE TO
   RECOVER BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

   SOME SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH ANY REMNANT
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTER /MOST LIKELY OVER OK/. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
   SEVERE RISK SHOULD EVOLVE OUT OF THE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME
   THAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS ALONG WITH
   AFOREMENTIONED FRONTS IN BOTH THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD
   AID IN FOCUSING LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
   INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY SEVERE
   WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. WITH THE LLJ EXPECTED TO BE
   BROADER/STRONGER ON FRI NIGHT COMPARED TO THU NIGHT...UPSCALE GROWTH
   INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE MCS/S APPEARS LIKELY. THIS COULD YIELD AN
   INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS. 

   ...MID-SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...
   AN ACTIVE CORRIDOR OF SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED
   WITHIN A WEAKLY FORCED BUT MODERATE TO STRONGLY BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT.
   CONVECTION MAY EMANATE OUT OF ONGOING UPSTREAM CLUSTERS FROM THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS TO OZARK PLATEAU AND ALSO ALONG THE WEAK FRONT AND
   REMNANT OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS ON THU. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
   BE WEAK...30-50 KT MID-LEVEL W/NWLYS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CLUSTERS
   CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.

   ..GRAMS/KERR.. 06/06/2014

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