Jun 6, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 6 12:49:38 UTC 2014 (20140606 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140606 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140606 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140606 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140606 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140606 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 508,555 29,394,920 Memphis, TN...Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Atlanta, GA...Colorado Springs, CO...
   SPC AC 061245

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0745 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

   VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...THEN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
   REGION....

   ...SUMMARY...
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THE CENTRAL TO
   THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS ALONG WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES IS FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS.

   ...OK/AR/GULF COAST STATES...
   WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS MORNING...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
   SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE NATION.  A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
   IS TRACKING ACROSS OK...WHERE STRONG MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE
   PROMOTING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY
   TO PERSIST AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS AR INTO THE GULF COAST
   STATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
   BE OCCASIONALLY SEVERE ALONG THIS PATH...WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

   ...CO/NM/KS/OK...
   IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS...SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SEVERAL
   HOURS OF DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF EASTERN CO INTO EASTERN NM. 
   MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED/BACKED
   DUE TO THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...PROMOTING SUPERCELL STORM
   STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ISOLATED
   TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS DURING THE EVENING
   OVER PARTS OF WESTERN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE...BEFORE UPSCALE
   GROWTH OCCURS.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REPEAT THE EVOLUTION OF LAST
   NIGHT...WITH A SEVERE MCS POSSIBLY TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK OVERNIGHT.

   ...SD/NEB/CO...
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SD
   INTO NORTHWEST NEB.  STRONG HEATING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO
   INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS WILL BE IN AN
   ENVIRONMENT OF SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MODERATE
   CAPE...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED OR OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
   CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..HART/MOSIER.. 06/06/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z