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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 070058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...NW OK...S-CNTRL KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES THIS EVENING. ...GREAT PLAINS... SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ACROSS ERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN KS APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF CONSOLIDATING INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS. THIS MCS SHOULD EVOLVE EWD THIS EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS WRN/CNTRL TX INTO WRN OK. DOWNSTREAM STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON A RESIDUAL E/W-ORIENTED FRONT NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER...ALONG THE 700 MB THERMAL GRADIENT NOTED BY 12 DEG C IN 00Z OUN RAOB VERSUS 8 DEG C IN 00Z LMN RAOB. ONGOING RISKS OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN STRONG BUOYANCY AND AN ELONGATED HODOGRAPH SAMPLED BY 00Z AMA RAOB. THESE RISKS WILL LARGELY TRANSITION TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS THE COLD POOL STRENGTHENS. WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND DOWNSTREAM PLUME OF 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS AMIDST 35-40 KT 500 MB WLYS...BOWING STRUCTURES SHOULD DEVELOP CAPABLE OF INTENSE WIND GUSTS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE WITH LINES OF STORMS FROM S-CNTRL NEB TO NWRN KS THAT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE E/SEWD TONIGHT. ...SOUTHEAST... STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD ACCOMPANY LARGELY W/E-ORIENTED SQUALL LINES THAT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE S/E THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AND CONVECTIVE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE...LARGE BUOYANCY SAMPLED IN 00Z TLH RAOB WILL FAVOR A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. ..GRAMS.. 06/07/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |