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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 071244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE LOWER/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED. AN ENHANCED RISK OF THESE HAZARDS IS FORECAST FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS. ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES AND MS VALLEY. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NATION. TWO SYSTEMS IN PARTICULAR WILL HELP FOCUS THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY. ...MID MS VALLEY... AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL MO. THESE STORMS ARE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS KS. DUE TO THE RATHER WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THESE STORMS/CLOUDS THIS MORNING...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MO/WESTERN IL. NEVERTHELESS...BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN RISKS...HOWEVER SOME THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO EXIST. ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST CO AND EASTERN NM. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST CO WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND HELP TO INITIATE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. 40+ KNOT WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY OK...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..HART/MOSIER.. 06/07/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |