The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central Great Plains and mid-Missouri Valley later today through tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

   SPC AC 141248

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

   VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF KS...NEB...IA...NW
   MO...AND FAR SE SD...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
   AREA...FROM W CNTRL TX NEWD INTO ERN SD AND PARTS OF MN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY
   ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA...KANSAS...AND WESTERN IOWA LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ALSO WILL
   OCCUR OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...AND FROM WESTERN TEXAS AND
   WESTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
   AND PARTS OF MINNESOTA.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   UPR LOW NOW OVER EXTREME SE AB WILL TRACK SLOWLY E ALONG THE
   INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING FAR SE SK BY 12Z
   SUN. AT THE SAME TIME...POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SSW FROM
   THE LOW WILL SWEEP ENE TO THE CNTRL RCKYS THIS EVE...AND NE INTO THE
   MID MO VLY EARLY SUN...BEFORE CONTINUING NE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY
   LATER SUN. OTHERWISE...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM E TX
   INTO THE TN VLY AS LWR GRT LKS TROUGH DEEPENS INTO A LOW OFF THE NEW
   ENGLAND CST.

   AT THE SFC...ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN CO TO THE
   CNTRL DAKOTAS SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY ESE TODAY...WITH A MAIN CENTER
   OF CIRCULATION EVOLVING OVER WRN KS BY EVE. THIS LOW SHOULD THEN
   TRACK NEWD TONIGHT/EARLY SUN...REACHING SW MN BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD AS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS.
   THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE EXTENDING SSW FROM
   THE LOW AND REACH NW OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12Z SUN.

   ...CNTRL HIGH PLNS TO MID-MO VLY LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
   SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND...VERY
   LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES...EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL
   PLNS AND MID-MO VLY LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

   SFC ANALYSES SHOW LOW-LVL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SPREAD NWD INTO THE
   CNTRL PLNS ATTM ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING SFC RIDGE. 35-40 KT SSWLY
   LOW-LVL JET STREAM WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS TODAY
   AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR TROUGH...ALLOWING SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
   RETURN TO CONTINUE NWD INTO NEB/WRN IA. BY EVE...EXPECT PW AOA 1.50
   INCHES AS FAR N AS THE ERN DAKOTAS...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR
   60S F LIKELY ACROSS SRN AND ERN NEB. COUPLED WITH STRONG SFC HEATING
   AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF DEEP EML...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
   DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH SBCAPE EXPECTED TO BE
   AOA 3000 J/KG OVER CNTRL/ERN KS INTO MUCH OF SRN AND ERN NEB BY
   EARLY EVE.

   SATELLITE AND VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW
   ALOFT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS ATTM...WITH THE
   UPSTREAM/STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEARING THE NV-UT BORDER.
   SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE...AND EML CAP...SHOULD DELAY WARM
   SECTOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. BUT ONSET OF HEIGHT
   FALLS WITH MAIN UPR TROUGH AND UPLIFT NEAR SFC LOW AND/OR ALONG
   ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING NE FROM LOW SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY OVER CNTRL AND ERN NEB AND POSSIBLY NW
   KS. OTHER STORMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN CO IN
   RELATIVELY MOIST...POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW.

   COMBINATION OF STRONG BUOYANCY WITH STRENGTHENING ASCENT/SHEAR
   ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS IN NEB
   AND NRN KS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL... TORNADOES...AND DMGG WIND.
   SVR HAIL AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ALSO MAY ACCOMPANY THE CO STORMS AS
   THEY SPREAD E INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLNS.

   WITH THE CONTINUED ENE MOTION OF POTENT UPR TROUGH TNGT...A BAND OF
   50+ KT SWLY 700-500 MB SWLY FLOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS.
   COUPLED WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LLJ...SETUP MAY
   PROVE FAVORABLE FOR UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A DERECHO-PRODUCING
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. SUCH AN MCS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
   ENEWD...AFFECTING PARTS OF NRN KS...CNTRL AND ERN NEB...AND WRN IA
   WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND THREAT BY EARLY SUN. SOMEWHAT LESS
   HIGHLY-ORGANIZED BUT STILL POTENTIALLY SVR CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
   FORM ACROSS CNTRL...SRN...AND ERN KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS COLD
   FRONT OVERTAKES DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH AMIDST AMPLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY
   FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS.

   ...WRN TX/WRN OK INTO SW KS THIS AFTN/EARLY TNGT...
   DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SSW FROM WRN KS SFC LOW SHOULD SERVE
   AS A FOCUS FOR WDLY SCTD AFTN/EVE STORM DEVELOPMENT AS STRONG
   INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH SFC HEATING AND FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE
   RETURN BENEATH SRN FRINGE OF EML PLUME. WHILE WIND PROFILES WILL
   DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...THEY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED
   STORMS/SUPERCELLS AS FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH
   VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR.
   SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO LATE EVE AS AN EWD-MOVING
   MCS...ESPECIALLY IN OK...BUT THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
   MIDNIGHT.

   ...SD THIS MRNG...
   HIGH-BASED/ELEVATED STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SVR HAIL MAY
   PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING IN ZONE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE
   TRANSPORT/WAA BENEATH DEEP EML /REF MCD 991/.

   ..CORFIDI/MARSH.. 06/14/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z