Jun 14, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 14 16:31:43 UTC 2014 (20140614 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140614 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central Great Plains and mid-Missouri Valley later today through tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

Categorical Graphic
20140614 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 53,416 2,168,224 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Kearney, NE...Fremont, NE...Norfolk, NE...
SLIGHT 294,335 12,333,332 Kansas City, KS...Kansas City, MO...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...Aurora, CO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140614 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
10 % 24,910 444,091 Kearney, NE...Norfolk, NE...Hastings, NE...Columbus, NE...Hays, KS...
5 % 142,823 3,721,108 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Fort Dodge, IA...Dodge City, KS...Fremont, NE...
2 % 98,625 4,984,262 Kansas City, KS...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Lubbock, TX...Mankato, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140614 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 90,919 3,542,302 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Ankeny, IA...Urbandale, IA...
45 % 49,937 2,155,187 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Kearney, NE...Fremont, NE...Norfolk, NE...
30 % 70,002 1,781,337 Des Moines, IA...Ankeny, IA...Urbandale, IA...Fort Dodge, IA...Dodge City, KS...
15 % 225,437 10,251,634 Kansas City, KS...Kansas City, MO...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...Saint Paul, MN...
5 % 231,671 17,100,065 Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Miami, FL...Aurora, CO...Hialeah, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140614 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 106,171 1,386,444 Lincoln, NE...Kearney, NE...Dodge City, KS...North Platte, NE...Norfolk, NE...
45 % 28,510 520,067 Kearney, NE...Fremont, NE...Norfolk, NE...Hastings, NE...Columbus, NE...
30 % 68,421 1,942,444 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Dodge City, KS...North Platte, NE...Hays, KS...
15 % 210,832 8,917,993 Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...Aurora, CO...Lubbock, TX...Mankato, MN...
5 % 189,390 15,222,174 Denver, CO...Kansas City, KS...Kansas City, MO...Miami, FL...Saint Paul, MN...
   SPC AC 141628

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1128 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

   VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NEB...WRN
   IA...PARTS OF NRN KS...AND NWRN MO...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER
   MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND
   ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
   NEBRASKA...WESTERN IOWA...NORTHERN KANSAS...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS
   ALSO WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...AND FROM WESTERN TEXAS
   AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH
   DAKOTA AND PARTS OF MINNESOTA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD IS A
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE BASE OF A
   SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS INTO
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 15/12Z. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY A
   BELT OF 40-50 KT FLOW IN THE MIDLEVELS AND A CORRIDOR OF 500-MB
   HEIGHT FALLS EXCEEDING 30-60 M/12 HR.

   AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL SD AS OF MID
   MORNING WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT INTO THE ND-MN RED RIVER
   VALLEY WHILE A SECONDARY CYCLONE DEVELOPS FROM NWRN KS TO S-CNTRL MN
   BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD
   THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS...AND SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. A
   DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN BY AFTERNOON FROM THE NWRN KS SURFACE
   LOW SWD INTO WRN TX. 

   ...SD/MN SWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
   TONIGHT...

   THE DYNAMIC RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
   MAINTAIN A SSWLY LLJ OVER THE GREAT PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY
   WHICH IN TURN WILL ENHANCE THE POLEWARD FLUX OF AN INCREASING MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS PROCESS WILL
   OCCUR BENEATH A PRONOUNCED EML AND ASSOCIATED CAP...YIELDING
   AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000-3000+ J/KG WITHIN THE EVOLVING
   WARM SECTOR.

   EARLY-DAY STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SD INTO NWRN IA AND SWRN MN ARE
   LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE THE CAP AT THE BASE OF THE EML AND ASSOCIATED
   WITH AT LEAST ONE VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE REGION.
   ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS TODAY AS THEY CONTINUE NEWD.

   BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
   SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY IN A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT
   REGIMES. 

   1/ WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER SERN WY/NERN CO WHERE AN
   INCREASING LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS AUGMENTED BY STRENGTHENING
   HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA AHEAD OF THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THOUGH
   INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER THAN THAT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...MLCAPE
   OF 500-1500 J PER KG WILL EXIST AMIDST 45-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO AS THE STORMS 
   ACCELERATE NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB AND PERHAPS NWRN KS.

   2/ ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE EARLY-DAY
   STORMS OVER SERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA SWWD TO THE VICINITY OF THE COLD
   FRONT-DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT /AND SECONDARY SURFACE LOW/ OVER S-CNTRL
   NEB OR NWRN/N-CNTRL KS. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 35-45 KT OF
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
   THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
   ANY SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS OWING TO CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER
   MOISTENING AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. OTHER MORE ISOLATED
   STORMS /SUPERCELLS/ ARE POSSIBLE SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO WRN KS.

   A SUBSEQUENT MERGING OF BOTH TSTM REGIMES IS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
   EVENING INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE ACCELERATING COLD FRONT OVER
   CNTRL/ERN NEB PERHAPS INTO N-CNTRL KS. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS
   APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CORRIDORS OF WIND DAMAGE AND
   LARGE HAIL SPREADING EWD THROUGH WRN IA...NERN KS AND NWRN MO LATE
   TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

   ...WRN PARTS OF OK/TX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

   STRENGTHENING DRYLINE CIRCULATIONS OWING TO STRONG HEATING WITHIN
   THE DRY AIR WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM THROUGH THE PEAK
   OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
   THAT THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS BY LATE
   AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
   MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS
   SUCH...SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN STORM INITIATION WITH A RISK
   FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
   OR TWO.

   ...S FL THIS AFTERNOON...

   SEASONABLY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH
   MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA
   INDICATE A WEAK MCV MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL PENINSULA...THE
   TRAILING INFLUENCE OF WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH DEVELOPING SEA
   BREEZE FRONTS...SHOULD FOSTER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY
   ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

   ..MEAD/ROGERS.. 06/14/2014

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