Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
117,437
7,801,664
Tulsa, OK...Saint Louis, MO...Oakville, MO...Jefferson City, MO...Wildwood, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
165,543
8,369,739
Tulsa, OK...Saint Louis, MO...Oakville, MO...Jefferson City, MO...Wildwood, MO...
SPC AC 160100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND FROM NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA TO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT OVER NEBRASKA AND POSE AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT.
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF NV/ID THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE BLACK HILLS BY MONDAY MORNING AS A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WRN STATES. THE SWRN EXTENSION OF A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO SRN KS --ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEPARTING WRN ONTARIO DISTURBANCE-- WILL ADVANCE NWD AS A WARM FRONT
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT.
...NEB VICINITY LATE TONIGHT...
LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN ERN WY AND A STRENGTHENING LLJ TRANSPORTING
MOISTURE NWD INTO THE REGION MAY FOSTER A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 16/08Z AS WAA INCREASES. VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL YIELD A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL WITH ANY
ROBUST/SUSTAINED STORMS.
...NERN OK INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTENING THIS EVENING ALONG AND N OF THE
EARLIER DAY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LENDS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STORMS
DEVELOPING AS RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCES NWD IN TANDEM WITH A
WARM FRONT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. A CAP AT THE BASE OF THE EML AND
WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL/WIND GIVEN
MODERATE POTENTIAL BUOYANCY.
...PERMIAN BASIN AND SW TX EARLY THIS EVENING...
A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE MID-EVENING HOURS ACROSS THIS
REGION FOCUSED PRIMARILY NEAR THE DRYLINE AND THE TX BIG BEND.
STEEP LAPSE RATES PER THE 16/00Z MAF AND DRT RAOBS WOULD SUGGEST AN
ISOLD LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY A STORM OR
TWO BEFORE THE LOSS OF HEATING AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER CINH
WEAKENS THIS ACTIVITY.
..SMITH.. 06/16/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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