Jun 16, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 16 13:00:37 UTC 2014 (20140616 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140616 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140616 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 53,593 2,867,750 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Cedar Falls, IA...Ankeny, IA...Mason City, IA...
SLIGHT 201,004 13,717,294 Milwaukee, WI...Minneapolis, MN...Saint Paul, MN...Madison, WI...Wausau, WI...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140616 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 61,529 2,575,737 Omaha, NE...Mason City, IA...Fort Dodge, IA...Marshalltown, IA...Fremont, NE...
10 % 61,601 2,748,724 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Ankeny, IA...Mason City, IA...Fort Dodge, IA...
5 % 92,482 3,564,235 Cedar Falls, IA...Mankato, MN...Des Moines, IA...Urbandale, IA...Marion, IA...
2 % 176,488 12,830,861 Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, KS...Kansas City, MO...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140616 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
45 % 31,521 1,255,250 Cedar Falls, IA...Ankeny, IA...Mason City, IA...Fort Dodge, IA...Marshalltown, IA...
30 % 57,328 4,093,375 Omaha, NE...Madison, WI...Mankato, MN...Des Moines, IA...Urbandale, IA...
15 % 140,265 11,114,718 Milwaukee, WI...Minneapolis, MN...Saint Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...Wausau, WI...
5 % 473,173 38,767,389 Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Kansas City, KS...Kansas City, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140616 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 107,715 3,077,467 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Kearney, NE...Fremont, NE...Norfolk, NE...
45 % 32,858 1,987,827 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Fremont, NE...Norfolk, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...
30 % 44,014 968,876 Mankato, MN...Mason City, IA...Fort Dodge, IA...Hastings, NE...Brookings, SD...
15 % 144,096 9,795,525 Minneapolis, MN...Saint Paul, MN...Madison, WI...Wausau, WI...Maplewood, MN...
5 % 344,116 19,815,497 Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, KS...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...
   SPC AC 161257

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

   VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NEB...SE
   SD...WRN AND NRN IA...AND SRN MN...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
   OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLNS AND UPR MS VLY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES
   WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
   NEBRASKA EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND
   WISCONSIN LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...THE
   SOUTHEAST...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE
   NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   MODERATE SW TO WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE N CNTRL U.S.THIS
   PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM SEASONABLY STRONG/BROAD UPR LOW SETTLING
   SLOWLY S/SE ACROSS WA/ORE...AND IN WAKE OF UPR LOW LIFTING SLOWLY N
   ACROSS WRN ONT. ELSEWHERE...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY
   N FROM TX AND THE CNTRL GULF CST STATES INTO THE LWR OH VLY. 

   TRAILING SWRN PART OF SFC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ONT UPR LOW...NOW
   LOCATED OVER NRN PORTIONS OF KS AND MO...SHOULD REDEVELOP FARTHER N
   INTO NEB...IA...SRN WI...AND IL LATER TODAY/TNGT AS HEIGHTS FURTHER
   REBOUND IN WAKE OF ONT SYSTEM. NWD MOTION OF THE BOUNDARY
   MAY...HOWEVER...BE SOMEWHAT RETARDED BY ELEVATED CONVECTION
   DEVELOPING N OF THE FRONT. LEE CYCLONE/TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN
   THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER ERN CO/WY.

   ...LWR MO VLY THIS MORNING/AFTN...
   ELEVATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH ATOP NW-SE
   WARM FRONT DEVELOPING SLOWLY ENE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO SE SD.
   QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES/ AND PRESENCE OF DEEP
   EML WITH AMPLE CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS
   SUGGESTS A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DMGG WIND /REF
   WW 301/. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME NEARLY SFC-BASED OVER ERN
   NEB/WRN IA AND PERHAPS SE SD BY EARLY AFTN. THESE MAY POSE A MORE
   SIGNIFICANT SVR RISK AT THAT TIME AND LATER...EWD INTO SRN MN AND
   THE REMAINDER OF IA AS LOW-LVL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD
   THROUGH THE MID MS VLY.

   ...DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH FROM NEB/KS SSW INTO W TX...AND AREAS EWD
   INTO THE UPR MS VLY THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
   VERY MOIST AIR /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES/ WILL PREVAIL E OF DRY LINE/LEE
   TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS TODAY...CONTRIBUTING TO
   APPRECIABLE POTENTIAL BUOYANCY /SBCAPE OF 2500-3500 J PER KG/
   ...GIVEN EXPECTED STRONG SFC HEATING AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF EML
   ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT.
    
   HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE...HOWEVER...EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
   STATIC THROUGH THE PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT DIURNAL STORM COVERAGE
   MAY BE ISOLD. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE NON-ZERO PROBABILITY FOR
   STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS IF STORMS DO
   FORM...A CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY
   DMGG WIND...AND TORNADOES. THE STRONGEST MID-LVL WINDS WILL PREVAIL
   FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NWD...DOWNSTREAM FROM A POSSIBLE LOW-AMPLITUDE
   IMPULSE NOW IN CO/NRN NM PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SVR THREAT
   ULTIMATELY MAY BE GREATEST FROM NRN KS INTO CNTRL/ERN NEB...WHERE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH UPR IMPULSE WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND SFC WINDS
   ARE APT TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BACKED E OF DEVELOPING CNTRL HIGH PLNS
   LEE LOW. GIVEN THE POTENT COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY AND SHEAR IN THIS
   REGION...SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND TORNADOES COULD OCCUR.

   THE STORMS THAT DO FORM OVER THE ERN NEB AREA SHOULD MERGE WITH WAA
   ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ESE FROM SE SD BY EVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A SIZABLE MCS THAT SHOULD THEN TRACK GENERALLY E OR
   ESE ACROSS PARTS OF IA...SRN MN AND...LATER TNGT/EARLY TUE...WI.
   EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS IN THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
   WILL POSE A CONTINUING RISK FOR SVR WIND AND HAIL. 

   ...CNTRL MT SWD INTO ERN ID/WRN WY THIS AFTN/EVE...
   SEASONABLY STRONG /30-40 KT/ CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
   PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLNS AND NRN RCKYS/GRT BASIN TODAY...E OF
   SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE WA/ORE UPR LOW. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THIS
   FLOW...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...MAY FOSTER
   DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS OVER ERN ID/WRN WY AND
   CNTRL MT. DEVELOPMENT IN MT WILL BE FURTHERED BY LIGHT...SLIGHTLY
   UPSLOPE...ELY FLOW N OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN WY. WHILE
   MOISTURE WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY SPARSE /PW RANGING FROM A HALF
   INCH IN WY TO NEARLY .75 INCH IN MT/...A FEW STORMS MAY YIELD
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND/OR STRONG SFC WINDS.

   ...MID/UPR OH VLY THIS AFTN/EVE...
   SCTD TSTMS MAY FORM THIS AFTN OVER PARTS OF IND/OH/NRN KY/WV/WRN PA
   IN ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. DEEP SHEAR WILL
   REMAIN WEAK. BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/
   BENEATH MODEST...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY MID AND UPR-LVL FLOW MAY SUPPORT
   A FEW EWD-MOVING CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF LOCALLY
   DMGG GUSTS.

   ...FL PENINSULA/S GA THIS AFTN...
   STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING OVER SRN GA AND THE
   FL PENINSULA TODAY...IN VERY MOIST AIR BENEATH WEAK W-E ORIENTED UPR
   TROUGH EXTENDING EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC. COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY
   COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE MID-LVL TEMPS /AROUND MINUS 10 C AT 500
   MB/...HIGH PW /AROUND 1.75 INCHES/...AND UPLIFT ALONG SEA-BREEZE
   BOUNDARIES...SETUP MAY ENABLE DIURNAL STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO
   SMALL...W OR SW-MOVING CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

   ..CORFIDI/MARSH.. 06/16/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z