Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
87,034
521,386
North Platte, NE...Aberdeen, SD...Watertown, SD...Jamestown, ND...Mitchell, SD...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 211622
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014
VALID 211630Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER/MID MS
VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN IOWA TO PARTS OF ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI...AND
IN A SEPARATE AREA ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.
...NORTHERN PLAINS...
MODEST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS ID INTO WY. LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB TODAY...BUT
STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN
A FEW INTENSE/SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND SOUTHEAST ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000
J/KG AND ONLY A WEAK CAP. MEANWHILE SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL YIELD EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KNOTS...SUPPORTING A RISK
OF A FEW SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE UPSCALE DURING THE EVENING INTO
AN MCS...WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEB/SD.
...UPPER MS VALLEY...
THE REMNANT MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN IA. MOST 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF
THIS FEATURE BY MID AFTERNOON...AFFECTING PARTS OF EASTERN
IA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL...AND EASTERN MO. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/CAPE AND VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT SUGGEST A RISK
OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
RISK...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
...CAROLINAS...
A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY
OVER PARTS OF VA INTO THE CAROLINAS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND
BROKEN SUNSHINE WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500+ J/KG.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...A FEW ORGANIZED
MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS
CAPABLE OF DOWNBURST WINDS.
..HART/JIRAK.. 06/21/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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