SPC AC 241958

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

   VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   REGION EWD INTO KS/NWRN OK AND THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE
   INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING
   ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND EASTWARD INTO
   THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA AREA.  MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL EVOLVE
   FROM WITHIN DEVELOPING CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
   EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO WEST TEXAS. 
   STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED RISK FOR HAIL/WIND WILL
   LIKEWISE CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...AND
   FINALLY...A CORRIDOR WITH STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
   WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY VALID...THOUGH 15% HAIL AND WIND
   PROBABILITY/SLIGHT RISK IS BEING EXPANDED ACROSS MUCH OF KS AND THE
   NWRN OK VICINITY...AS SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   AND MOVE SEWD/SWD ACROSS THIS AREA.  AN EXTENSION OF LOW PROBABILITY
   SEVERE RISK IS ALSO BEING INCLUDED ACROSS N TX...WHERE A BAND OF
   STRONG EWD-MOVING STORMS CONTINUES.

   OTHERWISE...STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...WHERE SLIGHT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT.  STRONG/ISOLATED
   SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO ONGOING FROM THE OH VALLEY NEWD INTO THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHERE LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE RISK REMAINS
   EVIDENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

   ..GOSS.. 06/24/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE CONUS
   THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD. WITHIN THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...A
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO UPPER
   GREAT LAKES WITH A DOWNSTREAM PERTURBATION PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS. UPSTREAM FROM THESE
   DEVELOPMENTS...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PACIFIC NW
   TO THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...AHEAD OF A STRONGER IMPULSE WHICH
   WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW COAST LATE.

   AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EWD
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE WRN
   EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ASSUME WARM FRONTAL PROPERTIES AS IT
   MOVES NWD THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO LEE
   CYCLOGENESIS OVER SERN CO. 

   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

   MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK
   PERTURBATION OVER WRN/CNTRL NEB INTO NRN KS WHICH WILL CONTINUE SEWD
   TODAY ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
   OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. FORCING FOR ASCENT
   AND AN ENHANCED BELT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH A
   WARMING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. MLCAPE INCREASING TO
   1000-1500 J PER KG/ TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
   AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL KS. 

   ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO EVENING OVER ERN CO...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
   REGIME TO THE N OF THE SERN CO LEE CYCLONE. ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND
   SUPERCELL MORPHOLOGIES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WITH THE
   PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS WIND AND
   HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON AN ISOLATED
   BASIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN EVOLVING NOCTURNAL MCS WHICH WILL
   PROGRESS SEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

   ...SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

   A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE ONGOING AS OF MID MORNING...ONE
   IN A STATE OF DECAY OVER THE TX CONCHO VALLEY INTO EDWARDS
   PLATEAU...AND THE OTHER MORE INTENSE AND PROGRESSIVE OVER THE TX
   SOUTH PLAINS INTO LOW ROLLING PLAINS. LATEST RAP-BASED GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS THAT THE LATTER MCS IS MOVING SEWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY
   AXIS SITUATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT
   WHERE MLCAPE HAS ALREADY RISEN TO 2000-2500 J/KG. GIVEN THE TIME OF
   DAY AND RELATIVELY WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
   WHETHER THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BECOME FIRMLY ROOTED WITHIN THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SEWD. DUE TO THESE
   UNCERTAINTIES...ONLY LOW WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITIES WILL BE
   MAINTAINED IN THIS FORECAST.

   AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT
   MAY PERSIST TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN MCS TRACKING FROM ERN
   CO/WRN KS INTO WRN PARTS OF TX/OK.  

   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

   IN ADDITION TO THE BROADER-SCALE TROUGHING PRESENT OVER THE
   REGION...RADAR MOSAIC DATA INDICATE AN MCV OVER SRN IL WHICH WILL
   PROGRESS NEWD TODAY ENHANCING LIFT WITHIN A MOIST AND AT LEAST
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WHEN COUPLED WITH A BELT OF 30-40 KT
   SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW ATTENDING THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...THE SETUP MAY
   SUPPORT BRIEFLY ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

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