Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
198,206
56,897,757
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...
SPC AC 020558
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT WED JUL 02 2014
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE
LIKELY DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND
APPALACHIANS VICINITY. A MORE ISOLATED AND MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
MAY ALSO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONUS
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION/MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...WHILE A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE APPALACHIANS/GULF COAST STATES. MEANWHILE...AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
OTHERWISE...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR /REFERENCE NHC FOR THE LATEST
DETAILS/ WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LITTLE THREAT IN TERMS OF SEVERE
WIND/TORNADO RISK FOR THE MAINLAND.
...NORTHEAST/APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
WHILE CYCLONICALLY EMBEDDED IMPULSES MAY NOT BE OPTIMALLY TIMED AND
HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE WEAK...INFLUENCES OF AN UPPER JET ENTRANCE
REGION WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO AN INCREASE IN STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS IS ANTICIPATED NEAR/AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS VIA OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A
FACTOR FOR FOCUSING RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
IN THE PRESENCE OF LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...THE GREATEST
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION /2000-4000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ IS ANTICIPATED
IN VICINITY OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS PARTS OF VA/MD/DE INTO
PA/NJ. WHILE THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL LAG THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT TO THE WEST...30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED COINCIDENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS AND A MORE PREVALENT
MULTICELLULAR MODE WITH ASSOCIATED LINE SEGMENTS/SMALL BOWS.
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ESPECIALLY BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
...ARKLATEX/SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
UPPER-LEVEL INFLUENCES WILL REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST...BUT RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMA AND/OR OUTFLOW MAY INFLUENCE A
REDEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE ARKLATEX. VERTICAL SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/BUOYANCY MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
FARTHER WEST...OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NM AND THE AZ MOUNTAINS...WITH A STORM OR
TWO CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.
..GUYER/COHEN.. 07/02/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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