Jul 12, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jul 12 16:25:57 UTC 2014 (20140712 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140712 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140712 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 105,613 19,395,298 Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Madison, WI...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140712 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 32,819 3,027,187 Omaha, NE...Des Moines, IA...Cedar Rapids, IA...Davenport, IA...Iowa City, IA...
2 % 49,099 13,069,874 Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Lincoln, NE...Madison, WI...Aurora, IL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140712 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 38,410 10,977,774 Chicago, IL...Des Moines, IA...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...Naperville, IL...
15 % 55,784 8,056,158 Milwaukee, WI...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Madison, WI...Peoria, IL...
5 % 393,526 21,157,752 Phoenix, AZ...Tucson, AZ...Kansas City, MO...Mesa, AZ...Aurora, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140712 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 85,253 14,280,871 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Madison, WI...Des Moines, IA...Aurora, IL...
5 % 310,664 18,370,235 Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Fort Wayne, IN...Grand Rapids, MI...Kansas City, KS...
   SPC AC 121625

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

   VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN NEB INTO PARTS OF
   IND/LOWER MI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM PARTS OF
   THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN REGION DURING
   THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE
   PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT SEVERE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.

   ...MIDWEST STATES...
   WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD/NEB.  THIS FEATURE
   WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/NORTH OF A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER IA. 
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COUPLED WITH INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000
   J/KG...WHILE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS
   CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES. 

   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
   IA BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE SUPERCELLULAR
   AND TRACK EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI AND
   EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHERN IND.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
   PARTICULARLY STEEP...SUGGESTING THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREAT INSTEAD OF HAIL.  LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN
   DURING THE EVENING POSING SOME RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES.

   DURING THE EVENING...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD FROM
   CENTRAL IA INTO SOUTHEAST NEB AND NORTHERN KS.  WEAKER VERTICAL
   SHEAR WILL PROVIDE MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE INTENSITY
   AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

   ...ND/MN...
   A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MANITOBA
   TOWARD ND/MN.  MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 
   WIND FIELDS IN THIS AREA WILL BE QUITE STRONG...BUT INSTABILITY WILL
   BE MARGINAL.  A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
   HAIL.

   ..HART/SMITH.. 07/12/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z