SPC AC 130554

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1254 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY
   EWD INTO WRN NY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND
   GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED HAIL REPORT ARE LIKELY FROM THE
   MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN NEW
   YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE OVER OREGON...AS WELL AS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ACROSS
   OKLAHOMA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE NRN
   PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
   ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE...A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...AND WWD ACROSS NRN OK
   INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE MAINTAINED
   AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE
   STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY WIND. 

   TO THE W...A COMPACT AND SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT
   OREGON...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN AZ AS WELL AS DAYTIME STORMS MOVE
   WWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

   ...SERN MO EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY INTO WRN NY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING NEAR THE COMPOSITE
   FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS STORMS FROM LAKE ERIE
   SWWD ACROSS OH/IND/IL. THE MOIST AIR MASS TO THE E WILL DESTABILIZE
   DURING THE DAY WITH AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPING.
   DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC MEAN WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH SIMILAR 0-6 KM SHEAR
   VALUES SUGGEST MIXED-MODE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL. THE MOST FAVORABLE CORRIDOR WILL BE FROM NRN KY INTO
   PA.

   ...CNTRL OREGON...
   STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER.
   INCREASING SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER ABOVE
   600 MB WILL ALSO EXIST AS THE WAVE APPROACHES. FORCING FOR ASCENT
   WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...WITH A RASH OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
   ACROSS CNTRL OREGON AND PERHAPS INTO SRN WA. THE INVERTED-V
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SMALL
   HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST LIKELY NOT SEVERE. IN ADDITION TO
   ISOLATED SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL...NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH
   LITTLE RAIN ARE LIKELY.

   ...SERN CO...TX PANHANDLES EWD ACROSS KS AND OK...
   STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR NEAR A STALLED BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE WEAK WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR
   MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAINLY SMALL
   HAIL. 

   ...ERN NEB INTO SWRN IA...
   A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BY LATE
   AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE HELPING TO CREATE WEAK
   INSTABILITY. A SIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
   EXIST...BUT A FEW SHALLOW STORMS MAY FORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN
   SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY.

   ..JEWELL/MOSIER.. 07/13/2014

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