Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
51,014
234,816
North Platte, NE...Lexington, NE...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
163,302
1,263,824
Amarillo, TX...Rapid City, SD...Clovis, NM...Kearney, NE...Garden City, KS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
164,414
1,277,880
Amarillo, TX...Rapid City, SD...Clovis, NM...Kearney, NE...Garden City, KS...
SPC AC 190444
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
...HIGH PLAINS...
DIFLUENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
SATURDAY...ALBEIT MOSTLY WEAK...AS STRONG MID-LEVEL JET CORE DIGS
INTO BC WITH SUBSTANTIAL TROUGHING EXPECTED OVER WRN CANADA. THIS
FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS...SWD
ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY MEANINGFUL
DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THOUGH MODEST FLOW
AT 500MB WILL EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS I-90 ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. GIVEN
THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING...BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS SFC
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE LOWER 90S BY 21Z. CINH WILL WEAKEN SUCH
THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM AND THE BLACK HILLS REGION OF SD.
SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOWLY SEWD WITH A MORE SLY COMPONENT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SFC-3KM AOA 9 C/KM...AND SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG
SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS AND HAIL/WIND MAY
ACCOMPANY THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD
SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE
PROBS FOR HAIL/WIND. IF IT BECOMES CLEAR MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM
ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE ACROSS SD/NEB/KS THEN A SLGT RISK COULD BE
WARRANTED.
...ELSEWHERE...
SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO
INTERIOR AL/GA IN ASSOCIATION WITH TRAILING MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH. OTHER ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE SWRN
U.S./GREAT BASIN WHERE STRONG HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO BUOYANCY
NECESSARY FOR DEEP THERMALS.
..DARROW/PETERS.. 07/19/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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