Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
179,455
4,598,721
Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Spokane, WA...Sioux Falls, SD...Yakima, WA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
177,285
4,350,411
Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Spokane, WA...Yakima, WA...Sioux City, IA...
SPC AC 021619
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT SAT AUG 02 2014
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM INTERIOR
PARTS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON EAST-NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF IDAHO
AND WESTERN MONTANA. OTHER STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN BOTH AREAS.
...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
LARGE-SCALE...WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED THIS PERIOD. WEAK SPLIT IN ERN TROUGH WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
BETTER DEFINED AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE LWR OH VLY MOVES E TO
WV. ON THE FLANKS OF THE WRN RIDGE...TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS ORE/WA...WHILE A SIMILAR PAIR MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS/ERN NEB.
SFC FEATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY WEAK. A FRONT WILL REMAIN
QSTNRY SW-NE FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS TO OFF THE NJ CST...WHILE LEE
TROUGH AND DIFFUSE WARM/STNRY FRONT PERSIST OVER CNTRL/ERN NEB. A
STNRY LEE LOW/TROUGH ALSO WILL LINGER OVER INTERIOR WA/ORE.
...INTERIOR PAC NW TO NRN RCKYS THIS AFTN/EVE...
AFTN HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT WDLY SCTD TO SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ORE/WA CASCADES E/NEWD INTO CNTRL/NRN ID AND
WRN MT. ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY BE FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND ALONG LEE TROUGH. BUT STORM INITIATION ALSO MAY BE TIED TO
CORRIDORS OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED UPR
IMPULSES...ONE OF WHICH ATTM IS OVER NRN CA AND THE OTHER NOW NEAR
PDX.
AFTN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING VERY WARM...DEEPLY-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER...FAIRLY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...AND MODEST
MID-LVL MOISTURE /PW AROUND .75 IN/ SHOULD YIELD 500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE. COUPLED WITH 25-30 KT...UNIDIRECTIONAL...SSWLY 700-500
FLOW...A FEW STORMS WITH SVR SFC GUSTS AND/OR HAIL COULD OCCUR. THE
STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO SMALL CLUSTERS BEFORE WEAKENING BY MID-LATE
EVE.
...CNTRL/NRN PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
COMBINATION OF ASCENT WITH DAKOTAS/NEB SHORTWAVE IMPULSES...MODEST
WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WEAK NNW-SSE WARM FRONT...AND STRONG
HEATING EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SCTD AFTN/EVE STORMS OVER PARTS OF SD
AND NEB LATER TODAY/TNGT. 30 KT NNWLY DEEP SHEAR ALREADY PRESENT
OVER REGION WILL FOSTER SOME DEGREE OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/
PERSISTENCE...DESPITE WEAK LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL SETUP COULD
YIELD A ISOLD STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY SVR WIND/HAIL THROUGH EARLY
TNGT.
...OH VLY THIS AFTN/TNGT...
EWD-MOVING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT A FAIRLY CONCENTRATED
AREA OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTMS OVER PARTS OF KY...OH...WV...AND
WRN PA LATER TODAY INTO TNGT. WEAK SHEAR AND MODEST LOW- TO MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES SUGGEST...HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SVR THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL.
..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 08/02/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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