Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
29,369
222,878
Rapid City, SD...Rapid Valley, SD...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
118,313
2,262,054
Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Rapid City, SD...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
78,935
1,775,597
Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Rapid City, SD...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...
SPC AC 060053
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2014
VALID 060100Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INCLUDING SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO.
...CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM SUPERIMPOSED IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE
WY-SD-NEB BORDER INTERSECTION. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EWD INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...SUPPORTING CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DUAL
CENTERED MESO-LOW FROM SE CO NEWD INTO SW NEB WITH ELY FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF NEB AND SD. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
IN WRN NEB TO THE LOWER 70S F NEAR OMAHA. A WEST TO EAST CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED BY THE RAP ACROSS NEB EXTENDING
SEWD TO NEAR KANSAS CITY MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS A BROAD AREA FROM NERN CO NEWD ACROSS NEB INTO SRN SD. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS
PERSISTING IN THE MID MO VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING. THE 00Z
SOUNDINGS AT NORTH PLATTE AND OMAHA NEB SHOW SBCAPE IN THE 1500 TO
2000 J/KG RANGE WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS.
THIS IS RESULTING IN 20 TO 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES
FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB MAY ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT SPEEDS ENOUGH FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT WITH
THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
..BROYLES.. 08/06/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z