Aug 6, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Aug 6 00:53:42 UTC 2014 (20140806 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140806 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140806 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140806 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 29,369 222,878 Rapid City, SD...Rapid Valley, SD...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140806 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 118,313 2,262,054 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Rapid City, SD...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140806 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 78,935 1,775,597 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Rapid City, SD...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...
   SPC AC 060053

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0753 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2014

   VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   INCLUDING SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN
   COLORADO.

   ...CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS...
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
   IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
   WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM SUPERIMPOSED IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE
   WY-SD-NEB BORDER INTERSECTION. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
   EWD INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...SUPPORTING CONTINUED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DUAL
   CENTERED MESO-LOW FROM SE CO NEWD INTO SW NEB WITH ELY FLOW ACROSS
   MUCH OF NEB AND SD. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
   ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
   IN WRN NEB TO THE LOWER 70S F NEAR OMAHA. A WEST TO EAST CORRIDOR OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED BY THE RAP ACROSS NEB EXTENDING
   SEWD TO NEAR KANSAS CITY MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
   ACROSS A BROAD AREA FROM NERN CO NEWD ACROSS NEB INTO SRN SD. THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS
   PERSISTING IN THE MID MO VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING. THE 00Z
   SOUNDINGS AT NORTH PLATTE AND OMAHA NEB SHOW SBCAPE IN THE 1500 TO
   2000 J/KG RANGE WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS.
   THIS IS RESULTING IN 20 TO 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE
   ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES
   FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB MAY ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT SPEEDS ENOUGH FOR
   MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP
   LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT WITH
   THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

   ..BROYLES.. 08/06/2014

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