Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
351,796
22,169,748
Memphis, TN...Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Little Rock, AR...Amarillo, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
172,840
2,707,495
Amarillo, TX...Pueblo, CO...Wichita Falls, TX...Denton, TX...Lawton, OK...
SPC AC 081630
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT FRI AUG 08 2014
VALID 081630Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY FROM PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A WEAK BELT OF WLYS FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE MAIN BELT OF
WLYS IS CONFINED TO NEAR AND N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE RICHEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS ALONG AND S OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONT FROM SC
WNWWD TO THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND CONTINUING WWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS EFFECTIVE FRONT HAS BEEN SHIFTED SWD BY OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION IN OK...AND ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE SRN STATES
TODAY...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SOME RISK FOR
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS GIVEN PRECIPITATION LOADING WITH
LARGE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J PER KG/ AND PW VALUES AOA 1.75
INCHES...AS WELL AS STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH DCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG.
OTHERWISE...THE RISK FOR SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN CO...NW KS...AND SW/S CENTRAL NEB.
MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J PER KG/ AND SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A REMNANT MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVING ESEWD OVER SW SD/WRN NEB...SUCH
THAT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND/OR MARGINAL SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND STORM COVERAGE INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME CONCERNS REGARDING SEVERE STORM
COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW WIND/HAIL
PROBABILITIES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR ANY
INCREASED SEVERE STORM RISK THIS AFTERNOON.
..THOMPSON/PETERS.. 08/08/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
| 
)
