Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
20,813
118,443
North Platte, NE...Lexington, NE...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
20,794
118,409
North Platte, NE...Lexington, NE...
5 %
334,651
22,013,758
Memphis, TN...Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Little Rock, AR...Amarillo, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
14,655
70,142
North Platte, NE...
5 %
161,849
2,652,626
Amarillo, TX...Pueblo, CO...Wichita Falls, TX...Denton, TX...Lawton, OK...
SPC AC 081956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT FRI AUG 08 2014
VALID 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN AND
CENTRAL NEB VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
...DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK THIS UPDATE WILL BE THE ADDITION OF A
SMALL SLIGHT RISK INTO THE CENTRAL NEB VICINITY. VIGOROUS STORMS
ARE DEVELOPING ATTM IN A SMALL CLUSTER NEAR THE NEB/SD
BORDER...INVOF A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED CENTER OF CIRCULATION ALOFT AS
INDICATED BY WV LOOP. WITH 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AND VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT YIELDING AMPLE SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MID-LEVEL ROTATION...RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS CONCENTRATED ACROSS THIS REGION WARRANTS AN
OUTLOOK UPGRADE. LATER...STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A SEWD-MOVING
MCS...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL POSSIBLY LINGERING
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE CENTRAL NEB VICINITY.
FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM FORECAST INFORMATION ACROSS THIS
AREA...PLEASE REFER TO RECENTLY ISSUED SWOMCD #1523.
..GOSS.. 08/08/2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT FRI AUG 08 2014/
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A WEAK BELT OF WLYS FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE MAIN BELT OF
WLYS IS CONFINED TO NEAR AND N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE RICHEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS ALONG AND S OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONT FROM SC
WNWWD TO THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND CONTINUING WWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS EFFECTIVE FRONT HAS BEEN SHIFTED SWD BY OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION IN OK...AND ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE SRN STATES
TODAY...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SOME RISK FOR
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS GIVEN PRECIPITATION LOADING WITH
LARGE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J PER KG/ AND PW VALUES AOA 1.75
INCHES...AS WELL AS STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH DCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG.
OTHERWISE...THE RISK FOR SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN CO...NW KS...AND SW/S CENTRAL NEB.
MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J PER KG/ AND SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A REMNANT MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVING ESEWD OVER SW SD/WRN NEB...SUCH
THAT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND/OR MARGINAL SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND STORM COVERAGE INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME CONCERNS REGARDING SEVERE STORM
COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW WIND/HAIL
PROBABILITIES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR ANY
INCREASED SEVERE STORM RISK THIS AFTERNOON.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z