Aug 8, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 8 19:56:22 UTC 2014 (20140808 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140808 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140808 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 20,813 118,466 North Platte, NE...Lexington, NE...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140808 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 20,813 118,443 North Platte, NE...Lexington, NE...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140808 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 20,794 118,409 North Platte, NE...Lexington, NE...
5 % 334,651 22,013,758 Memphis, TN...Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Little Rock, AR...Amarillo, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140808 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 14,655 70,142 North Platte, NE...
5 % 161,849 2,652,626 Amarillo, TX...Pueblo, CO...Wichita Falls, TX...Denton, TX...Lawton, OK...
   SPC AC 081956

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 PM CDT FRI AUG 08 2014

   VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN AND
   CENTRAL NEB VICINITY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   FROM PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOCALLY
   STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   MAIN CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK THIS UPDATE WILL BE THE ADDITION OF A
   SMALL SLIGHT RISK INTO THE CENTRAL NEB VICINITY.  VIGOROUS STORMS
   ARE DEVELOPING ATTM IN A SMALL CLUSTER NEAR THE NEB/SD
   BORDER...INVOF A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED CENTER OF CIRCULATION ALOFT AS
   INDICATED BY WV LOOP.  WITH 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE AHEAD OF THIS
   FEATURE AND VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT YIELDING AMPLE SHEAR FOR
   ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MID-LEVEL ROTATION...RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS CONCENTRATED ACROSS THIS REGION WARRANTS AN
   OUTLOOK UPGRADE.  LATER...STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A SEWD-MOVING
   MCS...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL POSSIBLY LINGERING
   THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE CENTRAL NEB VICINITY.

   FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM FORECAST INFORMATION ACROSS THIS
   AREA...PLEASE REFER TO RECENTLY ISSUED SWOMCD #1523.

   ..GOSS.. 08/08/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT FRI AUG 08 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A WEAK BELT OF WLYS FROM
   THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE MAIN BELT OF
   WLYS IS CONFINED TO NEAR AND N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THE RICHEST
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS ALONG AND S OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONT FROM SC
   WNWWD TO THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND CONTINUING WWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. 
   THIS EFFECTIVE FRONT HAS BEEN SHIFTED SWD BY OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER
   CONVECTION IN OK...AND ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. 
   THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR  WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE SRN STATES
   TODAY...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SOME RISK FOR
   ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS GIVEN PRECIPITATION LOADING WITH
   LARGE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J PER KG/ AND PW VALUES AOA 1.75
   INCHES...AS WELL AS STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH DCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG.

   OTHERWISE...THE RISK FOR SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS IS EXPECTED
   THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN CO...NW KS...AND SW/S CENTRAL NEB.
    MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J PER KG/ AND SOME
   ENHANCEMENT TO DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION
   WITH A REMNANT MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVING ESEWD OVER SW SD/WRN NEB...SUCH
   THAT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND/OR MARGINAL SUPERCELLS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND STORM COVERAGE INCREASES THIS
   AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME CONCERNS REGARDING SEVERE STORM
   COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW WIND/HAIL
   PROBABILITIES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR ANY
   INCREASED SEVERE STORM RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z