Wichita, KS...Salina, KS...Grand Island, NE...Hutchinson, KS...Kearney, NE...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
18,217
154,952
Kearney, NE...North Platte, NE...Lexington, NE...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
82,022
1,390,030
Wichita, KS...Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...Grand Island, NE...Hutchinson, KS...
5 %
401,573
21,516,631
Oklahoma City, OK...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Lincoln, NE...Birmingham, AL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
69,139
638,121
Salina, KS...Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...Dodge City, KS...North Platte, NE...
5 %
196,898
7,126,775
Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...
SPC AC 091625
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SAT AUG 09 2014
VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR
PARTS OF NEB AND KS...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.
...KS/NEB AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM S CENTRAL
KS NWWD TO NW KS AND WRN NEB...WHERE THE BOUNDARY INTERSECTS A WEAK
LEE CYCLONE. THE BACKGROUND FLOW REGIME ALOFT CONSISTS OF A SERIES
OF WEAK MID-UPPER TROUGHS MOVING SLOWLY EWD OVER ERN SD/NEB...AND
SRN WY/NRN CO. THE WRN WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW/LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT
WILL COINCIDE WITH DIURNALLY INCREASING CAPE AND WEAKENING
CIN...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM WRN NEB INTO WRN KS.
MLCAPE WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON...AND WHILE
WIND PROFILES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
NEAR 30 KT WILL FAVOR SOME ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH THE INITIAL STORMS. SUBSTANTIAL PW AND BUOYANCY
WILL FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING...WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE DCAPE...WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT
CELLS...BEFORE CONVECTION LIKELY GROWS UPSCALE INTO ONE OR TWO
CLUSTERS THAT WILL MOVE SEWD TOWARD CENTRAL KS AND PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT.
...ERN OK TO COASTAL SC THIS AFTERNOON...
MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR/ONGOING CONVECTION...AND
DEBRIS CLOUDS...WILL MODULATE AFTERNOON STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OCCURRENCE. LOW-MID 70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE
HEATING WILL DRIVE MLCAPE TO 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG THE SC COAST...AND
TO 3000-3500 J/KG FROM CENTRAL MS TO ERN OK. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK ACROSS THIS ENTIRE AREA...BUT A FEW DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
...WRN ND AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SURFACE HEATING WILL BE STRONGEST TO
THE NW OF A PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK IN ND. THOUGH MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE
STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN POST-FRONTAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVING ENEWD FROM N CENTRAL MT.
THUS...ONLY A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL RISK IS EXPECTED WITH STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
..THOMPSON/JIRAK.. 08/09/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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