Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Spokane, WA...Rapid City, SD...Lewiston, ID...Butte, MT...Opportunity, WA...
SPC AC 141629
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2014
VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PARTS OF THE ID PANHANDLE AND WRN MT...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND WESTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...ID/WRN MT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EVIDENCE OF AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX ROTATING
NNEWD OVER ID...AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER ORE.
SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ AND
SOME CLEARING WILL HELP BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ID AND WRN MT ALONG THE
PATH OF THE SPEED MAX...AS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z BOI SOUNDING.
EXPECTED A FEW THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS TO FORM BY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
NNEWD FROM ID INTO WRN MT...POSSIBLY AS A LOOSE CONTINUATION OF THE
ONGOING STORMS IN ID. THE EXPECTED BUOYANCY AND SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A REMNANT MIDLEVEL WAVE WITHIN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME IS
MOVING NEWD OVER WY AS OF LATE MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HEATING LONG THE LEE TROUGH /ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE THICKER
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
BUOYANCY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG
THE LEE TROUGH AND POSE THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS
AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL...THOUGH STORM LONGEVITY/INTENSITY WILL BE
LIMITED BY RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.
..THOMPSON/BUNTING.. 08/14/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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