Rapid City, SD...Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...Kearney, NE...Mandan, ND...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
39,913
188,884
Kearney, NE...Pierre, SD...Lexington, NE...
5 %
248,054
8,473,233
Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Clarksville, TN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
75,361
521,181
Rapid City, SD...Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...Mandan, ND...Dickinson, ND...
5 %
119,866
703,485
Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...North Platte, NE...Aberdeen, SD...Gillette, WY...
SPC AC 170554
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS TO CNTRL
NEB...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED
FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE PROBABLE OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-SOUTH.
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN SHOULD TRACK E/SE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT E AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS TO WRN NEB
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CENTERED NEAR STL WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARDS CNTRL KY THROUGH EARLY MON.
...NRN PLAINS...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED
STORMS FORMING BY EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD MIX INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S...A PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 DEG C/KM FROM 700-500 MB WILL OVERSPREAD
PARTS OF SD AND NEB. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG
BUOYANCY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.
CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL LEAD TO A BELT OF ENHANCED FLOW ATOP
WEAK LOW-LEVEL S/SELYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS. AMIDST AN OUTFLOW-DOMINANT
MODE...SOME STRENGTHENING OF A SWLY LLJ OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS COULD
YIELD A FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER IN SRN SD AND CNTRL NEB DURING
THE EVENING.
...MID-SOUTH...
SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z
NEAR/AHEAD OF THE WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE DRIFTING SE FROM THE MID-MS
VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN...WITH ROBUST HEATING ANTICIPATED
TO THE S/W IN ITS WAKE. AMIDST UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW
POINTS...SCATTERED STORMS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
NARROW BELT OF 700 MB WLYS NEAR 30 KT COULD SUPPORT
LOOSELY-ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS.
..GRAMS/ROGERS.. 08/17/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
| 
)
