Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 192000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014
VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN LOWER MI THROUGH IND...SRN
IL...WRN KY AND EXTREME SERN MO...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND INDIANA AND
EVENTUALLY WESTERN KENTUCKY. ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA...AS WELL AS FROM NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST UTAH INTO
WESTERN COLORADO. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
...SRN LOWER MI...IND AND WRN KY...
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO THIS UPDATE. ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER LOWER MI INTO NRN IND
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL NEXT FEW HOURS.
FARTHER SOUTH...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM
CNTRL/SRN IND INTO SRN IL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COUPLE OF MCVS. THE
ATMOSPHERE IN THIS REGION HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH 2500-3500
J/KG MLCAPE INDICATED ON LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION
VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONGER FROM SRN IL...SRN IND AND WRN KY WHERE A
BELT OF STRONGER WINDS WITHIN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH IS OVERSPREADING
THIS REGION RESULTING IN 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ISOLATED STORM
THAT DEVELOPED OVER EXTREME SERN MO HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
..DIAL.. 08/19/2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
...SRN AND ERN IL TO SE LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...
AN EARLIER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKENED OVER SE LOWER
MI...WHILE A SEPARATE CLUSTER PERSISTS FARTHER TO THE SW IN IL AND E
CENTRAL MO. THE NRN PORTION OF THE IL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEWD AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER SE LAKE MI...AND THE CONGLOMERATE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS SRN LOWER/INDIANA/IL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A PLUME OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM EXTENDS AS FAR NE AS
IL/INDIANA...IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SURFACE HEATING WILL BE
FOCUSED IMMEDIATELY E OF THE THICKER CLOUDS ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT. AFTERNOON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF
68-70 F WILL COMBINE WITH THE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED MULTICELL STRUCTURES AND ACCOMPANYING RISKS FOR A FEW
DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
...SRN AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON...
A DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST FROM SE
AL INTO S CENTRAL GA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND SERVE TO FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG
AND A BELT OF 25-30 KT WLY FLOW NEAR 700 MB WILL FAVOR ISOLATED
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WITH WET MICROBURSTS AND SOME MOMENTUM
TRANSFER IN MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
...NE AZ/SE UT/WRN CO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER UT/NW AZ AND AN ASSOCIATED MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY
TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER SK/AB. ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE CLOUD BREAKS ALLOW SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS SE UT/NE AZ/WRN CO.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
OVERNIGHT...A WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL STRENGTHEN FROM NEB TO SW
IA/NRN MO ON THE NOSE OF A 25-35 KT SWLY LLJ. MUCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KT WILL SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AFTER 06Z.
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