New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Kansas City, MO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
40,219
2,036,777
Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Sioux City, IA...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...
2 %
195,260
44,577,176
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Kansas City, MO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 %
72,487
3,076,184
Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Sioux City, IA...Council Bluffs, IA...Ames, IA...
15 %
193,253
39,095,432
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Kansas City, MO...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
40,547
1,922,537
Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Sioux City, IA...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...
30 %
58,553
2,318,830
Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Sioux City, IA...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...
15 %
165,415
10,138,823
Kansas City, MO...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Des Moines, IA...Overland Park, KS...
5 %
157,119
4,255,377
Wichita, KS...Cedar Rapids, IA...Davenport, IA...Iowa City, IA...Rapid City, SD...
SPC AC 311627
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014
VALID 311630Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM MINNESOTA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
IOWA TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO KANSAS. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA
AND MARYLAND TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST...
A LARGE...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS
STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LEADING TO A ROUND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MN INTO KS.
SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THAT DEEPENING MOISTURE AND SOME LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ARE SPREADING INTO WESTERN NEB/EASTERN CO. CLOUDS WILL SLOW
DESTABILIZATION IN THESE AREAS...BUT 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CONSISTENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN SD/NEB/KS AND NORTHEAST CO BY MID AFTERNOON.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS IN THIS REGION COUPLED WITH MLCAPE
VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG MAY RESULT IN A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
FARTHER EAST...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MN INTO CENTRAL NEB. STRONG
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP
AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 20-22Z.
BACKED/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL POSE A RISK
OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. SOME CONCERN REGARDING
THE QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH LCLS SUGGEST THAT STORMS
WILL TRANSITION TO LINEAR STRUCTURES BY EARLY EVENING...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF IA/SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN MO BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW RATHER STRONG HEATING OCCURRING IN A
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN VA TO THE NYC AREA. PWAT VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES AND 30-40 KNOT WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
RISK OF A FEW INTENSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/BOWING STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGEST CORES.
..HART/COHEN.. 08/31/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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