Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...
SPC AC 020100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PART OF SRN KS AND NRN OK
THROUGH CENTRAL/SRN MO...NWRN AR AND SRN IL...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS
BORDER AREA INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A
TORNADO THREAT AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY EVENING...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL EXTENDING
EWD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO
TONIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NRN TIER OF STATES AND SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MO
VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME WILL
TRACK FROM WRN/CENTRAL NEB REACHING THE MID MS VALLEY BY 12Z
TUESDAY. A BAND OF 50-65 KT WLY 500-MB WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE NEB
TROUGH WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MO TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES WITH
MIDLEVEL WINDS ALSO INCREASING INTO THE OH VALLEY.
...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO LOWER MI...CENTRAL MO AND NRN
OK THROUGH TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
CONVECTION/TSTM COMPLEXES EARLY THIS MORNING IN CENTRAL/SRN MO INTO
SERN KS/NERN OK. STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ FROM OK INTO FAR SRN KS AND
SWRN MO COMBINED WITH INCREASING WLY MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL FURTHER
ENHANCE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR ADDITIONAL
SUPERCELLS. ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE WITH DEVIANT MOTION
WILL HAVE A THREAT TO PRODUCE A TORNADO...AND THIS OUTLOOK HAS
INCREASED THE TORNADO PROBABILITY TO 5 PERCENT FROM NERN OK/SERN KS
INTO SWRN MO. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
SHORT-LIVED /UNTIL AROUND 03Z/. AT THAT TIME...STORM MERGERS AND
BACKBUILDING OF STORMS WITH EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS
ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK AND EWD THROUGH MO TO SRN IL SHOULD DIMINISH
THE TORNADO THREAT...BUT MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUST
AND/OR HAIL.
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO SWRN IL AS STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
SUPPORTS A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEB TROUGH.
...PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN NEB AND EXTREME SERN SD...
00Z LBF SOUNDING INDICATED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7.5 C
PER KM/ AND WLY MIDLEVEL WINDS OF 35-50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH
RESIDUAL STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A FEW ADDITIONAL
SUSTAINED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF ASCENT WITH THE NEB SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
AND/OR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS INTO THE
MID EVENING PRIOR TO BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION.
..PETERS.. 09/02/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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