Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
26,531
1,702,198
Fort Smith, AR...Fayetteville, AR...Springdale, AR...Conway, AR...Joplin, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
105,396
6,778,824
Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Overland Park, KS...Springfield, MO...Kansas City, KS...
SPC AC 171232
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014
VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...THE MOJAVE
DESERT...AND PERHAPS OVER FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
PACIFIC COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE NATION. A NUMBER OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH THIS AIRFLOW REGIME...THE CHIEF AMONG THESE WILL TRANSLATE
FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO THE SERN U.S. ELSEWHERE...THE REMNANTS
OF T.S. ODILE WILL TRACK FROM FAR NWRN MEXICO TO ERN AZ.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE SERN
STATES WHILE THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU AND LINKED TO A WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER KS.
...CNTRL PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU...
A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS IS ONGOING OVER PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL
MO WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING FORCING BY A COMBINATION OF DCVA
ATTENDANT TO THE ABOVE-MENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT THE TERMINUS OF A WSWLY LLJ. THE PRESENCE
OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A SUBSET OF THESE EARLY-DAY STORMS COULD BECOME
SURFACE-BASED OVER NRN AR AND POTENTIALLY POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT.
OVERNIGHT...A SEPARATE BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TO THE N OF THE KS SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT AS WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ARE AGAIN ENHANCED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LLJ.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE FURTHER BOLSTERED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODEST MUCAPE...AND AMPLE VERTICAL
SHEAR...SUGGESTING THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
...ELSEWHERE...
A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SC. OVER SERN AZ...CURRENT
VAD AND OBSERVED SOUNDING DATA FROM TUS INDICATE A VERTICALLY
VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH A MODEST AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION AND A RELATED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.
..MEAD/BOTHWELL.. 09/17/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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