Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
91,433
3,517,085
St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Sioux City, IA...Bloomington, MN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
136,986
5,188,321
Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Sioux City, IA...Bloomington, MN...Eagan, MN...
SPC AC 200049
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014
VALID 200100Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EXTREME NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO...NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
...UPPER MS VALLEY...
ROBUST CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE OVER SERN
MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG NERN PLUME OF STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SLOWLY DEVELOPED SWD INTO NWRN MN WHERE
SRN-MOST STORM HAS EXHIBITED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND EVEN
PRODUCED LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH A TORNADO. WHILE THIS LONE SUPERCELL
LIKELY REMAINS SEVERE...FURTHER MOVEMENT DOWNSTREAM WILL PROVE
DETRIMENTAL AS AIRMASS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WATERS REGION IS
SUBSTANTIALLY MORE STABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS CAPPED AT INL THIS EVENING AND MU PARCELS ARE
NEAR 900MB. FOR THIS REASON ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS INFLOW LAYER BECOMES INCREASINGLY ELEVATED IN NATURE.
...CNTRL PLAINS TO SRN MN...
SFC-BASED CU FIELD ALONG THE FRONT OVER NRN NEB APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...AGITATED ACCAS
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS SRN MN/SERN SD.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE
BENEATH VEERED LLJ. ISOLATED HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS ACROSS THIS REGION.
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS NERN CO APPEARS TO BE AIDING SCT STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. 00Z SOUNDING AT DNR
EXHIBITS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH 3KM AND SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL
FLOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD SEWD WITH SOME INTENSITY FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
..DARROW.. 09/20/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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