Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Columbus, NE...Brookings, SD...Pierre, SD...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
160,282
4,225,315
Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Topeka, KS...
SPC AC 300529
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SD AND NERN
NEB...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH HAIL MAY ALSO DEVELOP FROM KANSAS SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA.
...SYNOPSIS...
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
WITH SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL SD AT 21Z. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM
FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD FROM THE LOW ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER AND SEWD
INTO WRN IA WITH A DRYLINE FROM E-CNTRL SD INTO ERN NEB AND SWWD
INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MEAGER...BUT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STRONGEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARIES AND WITH AMPLE SHEAR IN PLACE.
TO THE E...A SMALL UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS OH...PA...WV AND
VA WITH COOL AIR ALOFT AND ENHANCED SHEAR HELPING TO SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS.
...ERN SD AND NEB DURING THE AFTERNOON...
A N-S ORIENTED ZONE OF NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST EARLY IN
THE DAY FROM NRN KS ACROSS NEB AND SD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE LOW. IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLY
ACTIVITY...COOLING ALOFT WILL PERSIST COINCIDENT WITH STRONG HEATING
W OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS SD AND NEB. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S F ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND NWWD TOWARD THE SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL
SD. BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AN ARC OF STORMS APPEARS
LIKELY...COMPRISED OF RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. A TORNADO OR
TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
DUE TO THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT INTO NEB...BUT ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
...ERN NEB...KS...FAR WRN OK INTO NWRN TX OVERNIGHT...
WEAK FORCING ALONG THE STALLING SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL FROM KS INTO
NWRN TX. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY COOL...AND
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A LONG-LIVED CELL CAPABLE OF
HAIL DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
DURING THE EVENING...WARM ADVECTION WITH THE SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
HELP INCREASE LIFT ACROSS NERN KS AND VICINITY...WITH PERHAPS
MARGINAL HAIL.
...CNTRL AND WRN PA...NRN WV AND SWRN NY DURING THE AFTERNOON...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS MI AND ACROSS OH/PA/NY
DURING DAY WITH COOLING ALOFT FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL HELP FOCUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY WRN PA.
ALTHOUGH MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS SRN AREAS
UNDER THE JET MAX...WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3KM WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY TORNADO THREAT EVEN WITH A FEW
CELLS PERHAPS EXHIBITING MIDLEVEL ROTATION...AND ANY WIND THREAT
SHOULD BE QUITE LOCALIZED. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL STRONGLY
FAVOR HAIL PRODUCTION...WHICH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
..JEWELL/ROGERS.. 09/30/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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