Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 010054
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.
...CNTRL/ERN KS...SERN NEB...FAR NWRN OK...
SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SERN NEB WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY. OTHER STORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED
OVER SWRN KS/NWRN OK ALONG THE STALLED DRYLINE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PER 00Z
SOUNDINGS...STORMS MAY HAVE TROUBLE BECOMING SEVERE.
HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR
CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL. WARM ADVECTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW-REINFORCED BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN KS WILL
MAINTAIN LIFT AND SCATTERED STORMS THERE TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED
HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO S CNTRL KS/NWRN OK MAINLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO SWLY TONIGHT.
..JEWELL.. 10/01/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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