SPC AC 121632

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

   VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS/ARKLATEX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FAST-MOVING
   ARC OF STORMS WILL EVOLVE FROM KANSAS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTH
   TEXAS OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING ARKANSAS BY MONDAY MORNING.
   SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS STORMS DEVELOP
   ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

   ...HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   A POTENT AND FAST-MOVING MID/UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS CO/NM
   AND EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY EVENING. A COMPACT
   HEIGHT FALL CENTER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS FALLING 60-90M PER 12H WILL
   MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST CO TO TX/OK PANHANDLES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS THE
   MID-LEVEL TROUGH UNDERGOES SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION...SURFACE LOW
   WILL CONSOLIDATE NEAR KS/OK BORDER AND TRACK EAST. LIFT ALONG THE
   COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW CENTER AND SURGING EAST/SOUTHEAST
   ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING SHOULD SERVE AS THE
   IMPETUS FOR INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
   OCCUR AMIDST A WARM BUT RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER FROM SOUTHEAST
   CO AND NORTHERN NM INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF KS AND TX/OK PANHANDLES.
   LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS ABOVE A
   DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE MLCAPE WILL BE AOB 500 J/KG AND
   EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG DURING THE
   LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. POCKETS OF HIGHER FORECAST DCAPE
   APPROACHING 1000 J/KG IN THIS REGIME SUGGEST SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE
   POTENTIAL AS STORM COVERAGE GRADUALLY INCREASES.

   ...KS/OK/TX WEST OF I35 THROUGH MIDNIGHT....
   INCREASINGLY FOCUSED FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT/WIND
   SHIFT SHOULD LEAD TO SQUALL LINE EVOLUTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
   WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT MASS ADJUSTMENTS OCCURRING
   IMMEDIATELY ABOVE A WEAKLY DECOUPLED AND CAPPED SURFACE-LAYER.
   CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS GREATER MOISTURE FLUX AND MUCAPE
   ARE REALIZED WITH SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT. HOWEVER...LATEST FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IMMEDIATELY
   AHEAD OF THE FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE THAT SHOULD BE ADVANCING
   EAST/SOUTHEAST AROUND 40KT PER MEAN WIND/BUNKERS MOTIONS. TURBULENT
   MIXING AND PRECIPITATION LOADING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
   CONVECTIVE LINE WILL NO DOUBT LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS...PERHAPS
   EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA OF 50KT IN A FEW LOCATIONS. LATEST
   INDICATIONS FROM STORM-SCALE GUIDANCE ARE THAT MOST CONVECTIVE WIND
   GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE RANGE OF 40-50KT OVERNIGHT.

   ...OK/TX/AR EAST OF I35 THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...
   EVENTUALLY STRONG FORCING AND A LARGER AND DEEPENING CONVECTIVE COLD
   POOL MAY ACT ON A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT TRUE
   SURFACE-BASED STORMS. THIS LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHEAST OK AND THE ARKLATEX DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY.
   BREAKS IN THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND/OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES
   WILL POSE BOTH WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREATS DURING THIS
   PHASE OF THE OVERALL LARGER SYSTEM/S EVOLUTION. A SEPARATE BAND OF
   CONVECTION MAY ALSO EVOLVE IN INTENSIFYING WARM CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS
   CENTRAL TX LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. GIVEN STRENGTHENING
   LOW-LEVEL JET TO 60KT DURING THIS DEVELOPMENT...SHEAR AND STORM
   MOTIONS WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR STRONGER WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

   ...MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY TODAY...
   SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN WARM AND MOIST
   AIRMASS FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS
   AFTERNOON. WHILE A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ORGANIZATION IN
   THESE AREAS...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR MORE
   WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT A FEW MULTICELLULAR STORMS CAPABLE
   OF STRONG GUST AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

   ..CARBIN/COHEN.. 10/12/2014

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