Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 181231
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
VALID 181300Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED STORMS ARE PROBABLE OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH TEXAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS...
THE ERN U.S. LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED THIS PERIOD BY A
POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WHICH
WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TO OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE TRACK OF THIS IMPULSE WILL HASTEN THE
NEWD MOVEMENT AND GRADUAL WEAKENING OF A DOWNSTREAM SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. FARTHER WEST...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED
SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY/NRN GULF OF CA WHILE A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AMPLIFIES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION.
AT THE SURFACE...AN EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS TO MS VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONTINUED SWD MOVEMENT OF
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE S-CNTRL AND SERN STATES. THE NERN EXTENSION
OF THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE NERN U.S. TODAY.
...NEW ENGLAND...
CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL COOLING AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WILL ATTEND THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. AND LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THESE FACTORS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-TOPPED
BAND OF TSTMS ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS
AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
...SWRN STATES...
AIRFLOW TRAJECTORIES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ONTO THE CA COAST HAVE TRANSPORTED INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS INTO THE REGION. WHEN COUPLED WITH
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THESE DISTURBANCES...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
...S TX...
IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING
MECHANISMS...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND
POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL YIELD ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT VIGOR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS.
..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 10/18/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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