Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 280542
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR WRN NY...SRN AND ERN
OH...WRN PA...AND FAR WRN WV...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION SWWD INTO THE MID SOUTH...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A PRIMARY HAZARD OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO
KENTUCKY.
...SYNOPSIS...
EWD ADVANCE OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MS/OH
VALLEYS IS PROGGED FOR TUESDAY...WITH A DOWNSTREAM ERN U.S. RIDGE
DEPARTING INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH TIME. UPSTREAM OF THE
TROUGH...LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE W.
AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NWD WITH
TIME...REACHING JAMES BAY OVERNIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY...REACHING NEW ENGLAND/THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST STATES BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
...FAR SWRN NY SWWD ACROSS SRN AND ERN OH/FAR WRN WV...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD INVOF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE -- ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EWD/SEWD WITH TIME. A
DIURNAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD REACH A PEAK
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN A LINE OR LINES OF SEMI-ORGANIZED
STORMS SHOULD BE CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/MID AND UPPER OH
VALLEYS. WHILE THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
SUB-SEVERE...STRONG/DEEP-LAYER WSWLY FLOW SUGGESTS FAST-MOVING
CONVECTION -- AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS REACHING SEVERE
LEVELS. THUS -- WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM FAR WRN
NY INTO SRN OH/FAR WRN WV...SURROUNDED BY A LARGER/LOWER-PROBABILITY
AREA WHERE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING GUST OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAILSTONE
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
..GOSS.. 10/28/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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