Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 281959
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
VALID 282000Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OH
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH A PRIMARY HAZARD OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO
PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
ONLY ONE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PRIOR OUTLOOK AND
INVOLVES THE REMOVAL OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FROM THE MID SOUTH
AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
MID SOUTH AND LOWER MS VALLEY THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON LENDS
CONSIDERABLE DOUBT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH IS ONLY RESULTING IN WEAK BUOYANCY WHEN
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.
FARTHER N OVER THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP EWD OVER ERN
OH AND MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF PA/WV/NY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
..SMITH.. 10/28/2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/
...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH AN EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MO/IL. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM LOWER MI INTO IND/KY AND AR. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
TODAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
...NY/PA INTO UPPER OH VALLEY...
A BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST LOWER MI INTO
WESTERN OH/SOUTHEAST IND. THIS ACTIVITY IS ROUGHLY ALONG A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION...WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION OVER OH/PA TODAY. GIVEN
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD ONLY MARGINAL MLCAPE
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...WIND FIELDS
WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND OF 30-40
KNOTS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION
LATER TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING
WINDS. GIVEN THE WEAK THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BELIEVE A
MARGINAL RISK CATEGORY /5 PERCENT SEVERE WIND/HAIL PROBS/ WILL
SUFFICE FOR THIS THREAT.
...TN INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...
NO CHANGE TO EARLIER OUTLOOK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM IN THIS CORRIDOR LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
RATHER WEAK...BUT AMPLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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