Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 110550
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED...GENERALLY WEAK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY BROAD CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT SWD AND THEN EWD INTO THE
NRN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
OH VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A FLAT RIDGE WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM NRN MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
WITH A CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO MOVE NEWD AWAY FROM THE SRN ATLANTIC
COAST. AT 12Z...A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SWWD
THROUGH IL...SERN MO...TO THE ARKLATEX AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TODAY ADVANCING TO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF NY/PA/VA...AND CENTRAL AL TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO BY
12Z WEDNESDAY.
...PART OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE TX GULF COAST...
A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF PRECIPITABLE WATER /1-1.25 INCHES/
EXTENDING NEWD WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE
HEATING AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 C/KM SHOULD RESULT IN
MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500-1000 J PER KG/. DESPITE NEUTRAL OR
WEAK HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THIS REGION /I.E. A LACK OF FORCING
ALOFT/...TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT
UNDERCUTS THE POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...THOUGH SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ADEQUATE
FOR SOME ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
...CENTRAL IL TO SWRN LOWER MI...
A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PER MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL/NRN IL THIS MORNING AND REACH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS TROUGH
AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF AN ACCOMPANYING 80-KT 500-MB JET
COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD EXIST FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO.
SINCE MODELS DIFFER ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS TSTM POTENTIAL AND THE
DURATION SHOULD BE SHORT /1-3 HOURS/...A CATEGORICAL TSTM AREA WILL
NOT BE INCLUDED.
...EXTREME ERN NC...
A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EXTREME ERN
NC...INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS...INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS VERY LOW
POTENTIAL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF A
COASTAL BOUNDARY AND WITHIN THE NRN EXTENT OF FORCING ALOFT
ATTENDANT TO A CLOSED LOW TRACKING NEWD PARALLEL TO...BUT OFF THE
SRN- AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST. GIVEN THE FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITY FOR
LIGHTNING...A CATEGORICAL TSTM AREA WILL NOT BE INCLUDED FOR THIS
REGION.
..PETERS/BUNTING.. 11/11/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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