Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 150548
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2014
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...EAST TEXAS...AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC MID TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 WILL
FEATURE AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAXIMA
MOVING SEWD FROM ORE INTO NRN AZ DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD. A SUBTLE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW/NWRN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
TO CNTRL TX AND N-CNTRL MEXICO BY EARLY SUNDAY.
IN THE LOW-LEVELS...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT IN PARTIAL
RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WRN GULF
BASIN. FARTHER N...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
...PORTIONS OF E-SERN TX AND WRN LA INTO SRN AR...
STRENGTHENING H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ATOP A PARTIALLY MODIFYING AIRMASS OVER COASTAL TX/LA. VEERING
LOW-LEVEL ELY-SLY FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF WILL AID IN SHARPENING A
DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE TX COAST DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND ELEVATED ISOLD-WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITHIN
A ZONE OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THIS REGION. DESPITE STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WEAK BUOYANCY LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE
/AOB 500 J PER KG MUCAPE/ WILL PRECLUDE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
THIS FORECAST.
..SMITH/GLEASON.. 11/15/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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