Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...San Angelo, TX...Copperas Cove, TX...Weatherford, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
56,189
2,776,796
Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...San Angelo, TX...Copperas Cove, TX...Weatherford, TX...
SPC AC 220050
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
TEXAS.
...SYNOPSIS/SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AS THE CENTER OF A LARGE COLD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW IS NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/WESTERN GULF COAST REGION TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
THIS IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST OF
ARIZONA...ACROSS SONORA/CHIHUAHUA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE HAS BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA BORDER FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
AND SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES NEAR THE BORDER AREA AS EARLY AS THE
01-03Z TIME FRAME.
FARTHER EAST...GENERALLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO BEEN OCCURRING
NEAR AND EAST NORTHEAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...PERHAPS WITHIN A
WEAKNESS IN MID-LEVEL INHIBITION...AND ALONG THE
LEADING/NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF RICHER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. IT APPEARS THAT THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
SPREAD OR REDEVELOP WEST NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...ACROSS THE
RED RIVER VALLEY...WHERE MODELS SUGGEST STRONGEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT
WILL BECOME FOCUSED BY 22/12Z.
FORCING FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE/TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS ACTIVITY...TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNCLEAR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...INCREASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH
FURTHER MOISTENING ALONG A SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS...FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KT...SEEMS TO SUPPORT ENOUGH OF A CONDITIONAL
SEVERE RISK TO MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES /MAINLY FOR
HAIL/.
..KERR.. 11/22/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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