Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 091250
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CST TUE DEC 09 2014
VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR OVER THE CAPE COD REGION LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED STRIKES ALSO MAY OCCUR TODAY OVER
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND THIS AFTERNOON OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS
TODAY...BEFORE FURTHER BECOMING CUT-OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC CST
EARLY WED. AT THE SAME TIME...MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS WILL PERSIST
FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS SRN BC/WA INTO CNTRL CANADA. WITHIN THIS
FLOW...A SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING 130W WILL CONTINUE NE INTO SRN BC
THIS EVE...AS A STRONGER UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW NEARING 150W
DEVELOPS RAPIDLY NEWD AND APPROACHES VANCOUVER ISLAND BY 12Z WED.
FARTHER S...WEAK SRN STREAM LOW SHOULD ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS SRN
AZ.
EXPANSIVE SFC RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN LARGELY STABLE LOW-LVL
CONDITIONS E OF THE RCKYS. STRONG/PERSISTENT SSWLY LOW-LVL FLOW
WILL...HOWEVER...MAINTAIN MARITIME AIR ALONG THE N PACIFIC CST.
...CAPE COD AREA THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLD EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY INTO
TNGT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ADJACENT CSTL WATERS...DURING PERIOD OF
STRONGEST ELEVATED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRIOR TO CLOSING-OFF OF
MID-ATLANTIC UPR LOW.
...PAC NW CST TODAY...
ISOLD EMBEDDED LIGHTNING/STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF LEAD UPR
IMPULSE OVER CSTL WA AND ORE TODAY IN STRONG SWLY MID-LVL JET.
SATELLITE DOES NOT...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS
PARTICULARLY COLD. IN ADDITION...ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SFC WILL BE
TEMPERED BY EXPECTED TRACK OF THE IMPULSE...AND ITS LIKELY
DEAMPLIFICATION. WHILE ONSHORE COMPONENT SHOULD RE-STRENGTHEN LATE
IN THE PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE 150W DISTURBANCE...ANY
ACCOMPANYING THUNDER SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 12Z WED.
...E CNTRL/SE AZ AND W CNTRL/SW NM THIS AFTN...
SCTD...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION/ISOLD STORMS SHOULD OCCUR OVER
ERN AZ AND WRN NM TODAY AS SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE CONTINUES SLOWLY E
ATOP ADEQUATELY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST
CONCENTRATED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MAIN UPR VORT.
..CORFIDI/GLEASON.. 12/09/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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